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Archive for February 2012

Interesting statistical results coming out of the Toronto Raptors coaching change

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Dwane Casey image cropped from Nuggets/Maveric...

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Among NBA fans, we still don’t know the ins and outs of coaches’ impact. For example, just how much should we credit the Bulls success the last 2 years to Tom Thibodeau’s hiring and the dominant defense as soon as he arrived? Is George Karl really making this Denver Nuggets team better? Truthfully, talent appears to be the best indicator. But what does seem apparant is that there’s defense and offensive specialists in coaching. Focusing specifically on defense, some coaches like Larry Brown and Scott Skiles can arrive on a team, slow the pace to a halt and always bring up the team’s DRTG to top 5-10 – But usually with a poor offense.

The Toronto Raptors are an interesting case study because by switching Jay Triano for Dwane Casey, they arguably went from one of the most offense only coaches in the league, to a defense first one. In Triano’s 2 full seasons with the team, they ranked 5th in ORTG in 2009-2010 and 21st in 2010-2011 (ranking top 20 most of the year before Andrea Bargnani sitting out the closing stretch of the season), but 30th in DRTG both seasons. One could argue that due to having as little halfcourt offensive talent as anyone, their ORTG had been too high, to make up for the brutal DRTG. By winning 40 and 22 Gs those seasons they played exactly to their talent level and what one would expect.

Now this direct comparison with the Dwane Casey era is less possible now because of Andrea Bargnani’s injury for much of this season making up a lot of noise in the comparison. They have dropped to 28th in ORTG and rose to 18th in DRTG, but Bargnani’s absence could be effecting both numbers. Here’s something that shouldn’t be effected by his absence though:

10-11: 8th ORB%, 25th DRB%

11-12: 21st ORB%, 2nd DRB%

Whoa! That’s a massive swing! Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

February 18, 2012 at 12:53 pm

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Make this trade: Steve Nash to the Orlando Magic

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Steve Nash

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This trade deadline should be a bundle of fun. Dwight Howard and Steve Nash getting traded is definitely in play – and if Howard doesn’t end up on the Nets, Deron Williams for the 2nd straight year will be too.

You know how in detective movies or books, there’s that scene where the 2 detectives working on their individual crimes have that “Wait, our cases are connected!” moment. That’s where I feel these Howard and Nash situations could be headed.

Here’s what we know. Half a year of Steve Nash before his UFA is unlikely to garner as big a return as the Suns want. Would the Pacers give up young PG Darren Collison for such a short return? Probably not. Even with Nash they’d be longshots against the Bulls and Heat. Dallas would want Nash, but what do they have to give up? Rodrigue Beaubois alone wouldn’t cut it. The Portland Trailblazers? Like Indiana, giving up young players like Wes Matthews or Nic Batum for an improvement that wouldn’t take them over the top would likely be a misguided option.

What if Orlando offered something like: Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, Ryan Anderson, Justin Harper, and 2012 ORL 1st for Steve Nash and Channing Frye? Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

February 16, 2012 at 7:47 pm

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NBA Trade Value Power Rankings – February 2012

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NBA Trade Value Power Rankings – February 2011

One of the NBA questions difficult to answer is “Where do franchises rank going forward?” This is difficult because some teams are young and planning to win later, some teams are old and hoping to win now. Some non playoff teams are hoping to make it, some are preferring to finish in the bottom 5 to get draft picks. How do you judge them by the same metric?

My best attempt is using total trade value. What a franchise has that makes its position valuable – Superstars, youth, draft picks, salary flexibility, health, character players, etc., shows up in the value of these assets. If you add it all together, you get a good estimation of where a franchise sits. If a young team’s future outweighs a win now team’s present quality or vice versa, it should show up in total trade value. Total trade value is the quality of your “hand”. A hand may still be wrongly folded or rightly rode out – this doesn’t account for the quality of future decisions – But those decisions don’t change the positional strength teams presently have. My goal is to rank this present position.

The criteria is of course less than definite. I found the easiest way to rank teams close to each other, is to ask what it’d take for one team to acquire the other’s best asset or two. Often after this is becomes apparant who has more left over. For example, the cost of Phoenix’s best asset Marcin Gortat is likely Charlotte’s 2012 1st. After this Charlotte has Kemba Walker, Bismack Biyombo, Gerald Henderson, DJ Augustin, BJ Mullens as assets of value and Phoenix has Steve Nash (half a year from free agency), their 2012 1st, Markieff Morris, Robin Lopez. Of these two groups, Charlotte’s pool of young players including two top 10 picks in 2011, appears more valuable.

Thus, the top 30: Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

February 11, 2012 at 4:58 pm