NBA Trade Value Power Rankings – February 2012

NBA Trade Value Power Rankings – February 2011

One of the NBA questions difficult to answer is “Where do franchises rank going forward?” This is difficult because some teams are young and planning to win later, some teams are old and hoping to win now. Some non playoff teams are hoping to make it, some are preferring to finish in the bottom 5 to get draft picks. How do you judge them by the same metric?

My best attempt is using total trade value. What a franchise has that makes its position valuable – Superstars, youth, draft picks, salary flexibility, health, character players, etc., shows up in the value of these assets. If you add it all together, you get a good estimation of where a franchise sits. If a young team’s future outweighs a win now team’s present quality or vice versa, it should show up in total trade value. Total trade value is the quality of your “hand”. A hand may still be wrongly folded or rightly rode out – this doesn’t account for the quality of future decisions – But those decisions don’t change the positional strength teams presently have. My goal is to rank this present position.

The criteria is of course less than definite. I found the easiest way to rank teams close to each other, is to ask what it’d take for one team to acquire the other’s best asset or two. Often after this is becomes apparant who has more left over. For example, the cost of Phoenix’s best asset Marcin Gortat is likely Charlotte’s 2012 1^st. After this Charlotte has Kemba Walker, Bismack Biyombo, Gerald Henderson, DJ Augustin, BJ Mullens as assets of value and Phoenix has Steve Nash (half a year from free agency), their 2012 1^st, Markieff Morris, Robin Lopez. Of these two groups, Charlotte’s pool of young players including two top 10 picks in 2011, appears more valuable.

Thus, the top 30:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (2011 ranking: #2)

Noteable assets: SF Kevin Durant (young, MVP candidate), PG Russell Westbrook (young, perennial all-star), SG James Harden (young, all-star candidate), PF Serge Ibaka, C Kendrick Perkins, C Cole Aldrich, SF Thabo Sefolosha, PG/SG Reggie Jackson, PG Eric Maynor, C Nick Collision, 2012 OKC 1^st

The Thunder are trade value beasts. You can’t get better trade value than having than an MVP candidate in Durant, a top 20 player in Westbrook and another all-star in Harden on the same team – and under 25, of course. They back this up with a stack of young, productive and cheap role players like Ibaka, Aldrich, Sefolosha, Jackson, Maynor, all positive value assets. Two defensive bigs and winners in Nick Collision and Kendrick Perkins would also draw interest around the league.

Oklahoma City is a perfect trade value horse. They have the youth, star power and valuable supporting pieces everyone envies. As a result they’ll likely be contending for a decade.

2. Miami Heat (2011 rank: #1)

Noteable assets: Lebron James (MVP candidate), Dwyane Wade (aging superstar), Chris Bosh (top 20 player), C Joel Anthony, PF Udonis Haslem, PG Norris Cole, PG Mario Chalmers, SF Mike Miller (negative), SF Shane Battier (negative), 2012 MIA 1st

The Heat drop from #1, but remain a trade value force. Lebron James has enough value to make top 5 on this list on his own, Dwyane Wade is the team’s second MVP caliber star despite a lesser statistical season, and Chris Bosh is a 3^rd all-star in value. The Heat lack great depth after these pieces – The Mike Miller and Shane Battier signings haven’t worked out and Joel Anthony, Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole can have their weaknesses covered more on the Heat than any other team. This along with Wade’s drop in value is enough to put them below the Thunder, but they are top heavy enough to cruise to this spot.

3. Los Angeles Clippers (2011 rank: #5)

Noteable assets: PF Blake Griffin (young, superstar), PG Chris Paul (MVP candidate), C Deandre Jordan, PG/SG Mo Williams, PG Eric Bledsoe, SF Caron Butler, PF Kenyon Martin

The Clippers trade value spawns from having two superstars – One in Chris Paul at the middle of his career, the other in Blake Griffin just beginning it. The Clippers’ asset depth is not terrible. Deandre Jordan is a young starting C, Eric Bledsoe is a young prospect, and Mo Williams, Caron Butler, and Kenyon Martin are useful veterans. The Clippers and the Bulls are close, with the latter having much more asset depth – But I believe the trade value of those dual stars is enough to give the Clippers this spot. Just think about all the franchises who’d empty their teams for either Paul or Griffin alone.

4. Chicago Bulls (2011 rank: #3)

Noteable assets: PG Derrick Rose (young, MVP candidate), SF Luol Deng, PF Carlos Boozer, C Joakim Noah, PF Taj Gibson, C Omar Asik, SG Rip Hamilton, PF Nikola Mirotic (in Europe), CHI 2012 1st, future CHA 1^st

The Bulls assets haven’t changed a ton from a year ago and thus, neither has their top 4 ranking. Derrick Rose is one of the 3 most  valuable assets in the league with Durant and James – while Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer are strong starters at their positions and valued as such. The Bulls’ asset depth is excellent. Taj Gibson, Omar Asik, Ronnie Brewer are 3 young, productive defenders, the 2011 Euro stash pick Nikola Mirotic will have value in the future, and a future pick from Charlotte (top 14 protected 2012, top 12 protected 2013, top 10 protected 2014, top 8 protected 2015, unprotected 2016) which could become increasingly interesting as the years pass.

Rose is the team’s only spectacular asset, but a handful of starters and league best asset depth gives the Bulls a terrific toolbox to keep a contending team around around their star for the foreseeable future.

5.  Minnesota Timberwolves (2011 rank: #16)

Noteable assets: PF Kevin Love (Young superstar), PG Ricky Rubio (Young superstar talent), SF/PF Derrick Williams, SG/SF Wes Johnson, SF Michael Beasley, PF Anthony Randolph, C Nikola Pekovic, PG/SG JJ Barea, Uta 1st (top 14 protected 2012, top 12 protected 2013)

Whoa! This high already? But keep in mind, the Clippers held the #5 spot a year ago. Their trade value checked out. A year later, their success has caught up.

The Timberwolves are in a rare position of having two young perenniel all-star talents in Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio. When you have not 1 but 2 stars, everything falls into place for a franchise.

The Wolves depth after their top 2 pieces is very good. #2 pick Derrick Williams would be bid on as a future all-star, Wesley Johnson is still in his 2^nd season and not one to count out yet. Nikola Pekovic is quietly having a breakout 2^nd season. Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph may have bidders. Importantly, David Kahn appears as asset accumulation based as anyone. Watch for him to keep an asset bank in his back pocket the same way the Thunder and Bulls have.

The Wolves are a quickly improving team now and may be in the playoffs and contending sooner than one thinks. They resemble a young Oklahoma City Thunder.

6. Los Angeles Lakers (2011 rank: #4)

Noteable assets: C Andrew Bynum (Young all-star, injury prone), PF/C Pau Gasol (aging all-star), SG Kobe Bryant (old legend), PF Josh McRoberts, SG Andrew Goudelock, SF/PF Metta World Peace (negative), SF Luke Walton (negative), PG Steve Blake (negative), 2012 LAL 1st

Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol may be aging and expensive, but they would be a fantastic help to a team looking to win a title this year. They are true champions. But the Lakers’ best asset is now Bynum. He may be the best center in the league with offensive skill outstripping Howard’s, with still excellent defense and rebounding. If he can stay healthy, he’s a franchise player at the hardest position to get one.

The Lakers asset depth after that is atrocious – something that costs them the 5^th spot. But their big 3 still have the value to give them top 6.

7. Boston Celtics (2011 ranking: #6)

Noteable assets: PG Rajon Rondo (young all-star), SF Paul Pierce (old legend), PF Kevin Garnett (old legend), SG Ray Allen (old legend), PF Jajuan Johnson, 2012 BOS 1st

The Celtics’ trade value is headed towards the cliff Thelma and Louise drove off of. Resembling their foe the Lakers, a young star in Rondo is a bright spot for the future – though as a PG and not C, he’s no Bynum in value. Paul Pierce likely has the most left of the big 3. Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are half a year rentals with upcoming free agency and perhaps, retirement. Don’t count Danny Ainge to actually trade these stars. If they aren’t dealt, it’ll be a hard fall down this list sooner than later.

8. San Antonio Spurs (2011 ranking: #7)

Noteable assets: SG Manu Ginobili (Aging all-star), PG Tony Parker (Aging all-star), C Tim Duncan (Old legend), SF Kawhi Leonard, PF Dejaun Blair, C Tiago Splitter, SF Richard Jefferson, 2012 SAS 1st

If the Celtics are driving off a cliff, the Spurs have pulled out a hang glider and will classily enjoy the trip to their doom. In trade value, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili is still an incredible backcourt and after early struggles, Tim Duncan has once again emerged as an all-star caliber C. What I like about the Spurs lately is their young depth. They’ve added Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Dejaun Blair and Tiago Splitter as productive role players, despite picking so low in the draft every year. True, the Spurs are still headed for a hefty fall down this list in the post Duncan and Ginobili era without a Rondo or Bynum young all-star. But I believe the Spurs have the best shot of the 3 at winning a final NBA title this season.

9. New York Knicks (2011 ranking: #12)

Noteable assets: SF Carmelo Anthony (all-star), PF Amar’e Stoudemire (all-star), C Tyson Chandler (starting C), PG Jeremy Lin, SF Landry Fields

The Knicks may have hard a rough start to this season before the Jeremy Lin experience took over, but are nonetheless is an optimistic place in trade value due to their star power. Anthony would still have a lot of value and Chandler is one of the best centers in the league. Amar’e is still a star PF even his contract and health history hurts his trade value. Who knows, perhaps Lin will end up a long term valuable asset as well. The team desperately needs to find a way to add asset depth to rise up this list however.

10. Washington Wizards (2011 ranking: #17)

Noteable assets: PG John Wall (young potential superstar), 2012 WAS 1^st, C Javale McGee, SG Nick Young, SF Jan Vesely, SF Chris Singleton, PF Trevor Booker, SG Jordan Crawford, PF Andray Blatche (negative)

The Wizards franchise seems too hapless to get this high, but their trade value is undoubtably still strong. Despite inconsistent play so far John Wall still has enough ridiculous upside to draw a huge price, McGee is a talented center, and they are deep with young talents. The 2012 draft pick will be very high, of course. But it’s Wall who will determine if the Wizards go up or down from this spot. The gap between perenniel all-star and permanent disappointment is enormous for his value.

11. Cleveland Cavaliers (2011 rank: #28)

Noteable assets: PG Kyrie Irving (young, potential superstar), 2012 CLE 1^st, PF Tristan Thompson, C Anderson Varejao, SF Omri Casspi

This is the value of drafting a potential superstar. Especially if the draft pick used to get him was acquired with Mo Williams. Irving is one of the most valuable assets in the league with a seemingly unlimited upside. If the Cavaliers had drafted a prospect with all-star potential at #4 instead of Thompson they could be even higher.

On the rest of the roster, Varejao and Thompson have value due to most teams needing rebounding and the upcoming draft pick will add another value prospect.  After that they are still thin. Irving’s value is likely higher than Wall’s, but the Cavaliers do not have the asset depth of the Wizards.

12. New Jersey Nets (2011 ranking: #20)

Noteable assets: PG Deron Williams (all-star, free agent in half a year), C Brook Lopez, SG Marshon Brooks, 2012 NJ 1^st, PF Kris Humphries

A blind spot for this ranking is what to do with soon to be free agents like Deron Williams or Dwight Howard, as their trade value would be much higher for teams who can extend them, than those who can’t. I’ll say this – If New Jersey’s Dwight Howard plans fall through, who says no to the Nets offering Deron Williams to the Knicks for Carmelo Anthony as a backup plan? As a result I’ll go with Deron’s value being as high as Carmelo’s at the moment.

If so, the Nets trade value looks fine. They have an all-star in Deron, and potential all-star team 2^nd bananas in Brook Lopez and Marshon Brooks. Kris Humphries is also a very good player. Furthermore, with all these injuries their lottery pick this year has solid value. The Nets trade value is similar to Utah’s before the Deron trade a year ago. The Nets will move to the top 5 if they acquire Dwight Howard at some point.

13. Dallas Mavericks (2011 ranking: #11)

Noteable assets: PF Dirk Nowitzki (aging superstar), SG Jason Terry, SF Shawn Marion, C Brendan Haywood, PG Jason Kidd, PG Rodrigue Beaubois, PF Lamar Odom, 2012 DAL 1st

Ok, so last year’s title winner didn’t rank in my top 10 of these rankings a few months before. Considering other than Dirk the main contributers were either aging vets in Kidd, Terry and Marion, or soon to be free agents in Chandler and Barea, it makes sense their trade value would be lower than their quality of play.

They’re still not top 10. Dirk is Dirk, but he’s also in his 14^th season, a point almost nobody has made it past without falling past their prime – and it appears the decline has started. It is very likely that Kyrie Irving, John Wall and Deron Williiams have more value than him. With mid 30s veterans and 1 year contracts on the rest of the roster, the Mavericks lack of depth only confirms they trail the Wizards, Cavaliers and Nets.

The value of a superstar who can win you an NBA title even at the end of his prime is enough to get the Mavericks a high ranking, but the Mavericks asset depth is one of the worst in the league.

14. Indiana Pacers (2011 rank: #24)

Noteable assets: C Roy Hibbert (young all-star), SG Paul George, SF Danny Granger, PG Darren Collision, PG/SG George Hill, PF Tyler Hansbrough, PF David West, 2012 IND 1st

The Pacers have done the best job you can to land in the top 15 of this list without top 8 draft picks to get a superstar asset with. Hibbert, Granger, George are 3 of the best picks of the last decade. Hibbert and Granger are already all-stars, one could see George making an all-star game in the future. West is a former all-star as well looking to recapture his game. Yet asset depth still trails the value of a single superstar – Indy is the first of a streak of teams who are in this range for that reason. The Pacers will continue to move up this list and may come closer to the NBA title in the future than the top 5 of this list.

15. Memphis Grizzlies (2011 rank: #15)

Noteable assets: C Marc Gasol (all-star), SF Rudy Gay (borderline all-star), PF Zach Randolph (injured all-star), PG Mike Conley, Jr., SG OJ Mayo, SG Tony Allen, PF Mareese Speights, 2012 MEM 1st

Like the Pacers, the Grizzlies are loaded with starter asset depth. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are now both all-stars, Rudy Gay could make one in the next few years. Conley, Mayo, Allen are productive perimeter players. Despite this middling rank, Grizzlies fans should not fret too much – They’re a team made for the playoffs and are likely the best bet of all these teams to pull a 2004 Detroit Pistons and do it without a superstar.

16. Utah Jazz (2011 rank: #10)

Noteable assets: C Enes Kanter (young, potential all-star), PF Derrick Favors (young, potential all-star), PF Paul Millsap, PF Al Jefferson, SF Gordon Hayward, SG Alec Burks, 2012 1^st, 2012 GS 1^st, 2013 MEM 1st

The Jazz made a brilliant move by trading Deron Williams early and getting a king’s ransom in return, and now have some the best trade value depth in the league. The last two #3 picks Favors and Kanter, Hayward, Burks and likely two top 16 picks this year give the team an excellent pool of young pieces. Millsap (playing like an all-star) and Jefferson are nice productive veterans to offer at the deadline. The Jazz future on this list depends on Favors and Kanter. They aren’t showing a ton of offense right now. If only defense and rebounding contributers, they will have value, but not enough for the Jazz to make the top 15 of this list.

17. Philadelphia 76ers (2011 rank: #26)

Noteable assets: SF Andre Igoudala (all-star), SG Evan Turner (young, potential all-star), PG Jrue Holliday, C Spencer Hawes, PG/SG Lou Williams, SF Thad Young, C Nikola Vucevic, 2012 PHI 1st

The Sixers are one of the most fun stories in the league as a true example of team over superstars, deep with contributers. Jrue Holliday and Evan Turner is an excellent young backcourt and Iguodala is a true all-star. They went from 0 valuable Cs to 2 in a heartbeat with Spencer Hawes play this year and the excellent Vucevic draft pick. This both completes their team and their trade value.

18. Denver Nuggets (2011 rank: #21)

Noteable assets: SF Danillo Gallinari (young, potential all-star), C Nene, SG Aaron Afflalo, PG Ty Lawson, SF Wilson Chandler (rights to), PF Kenneth Faried, SG Rudy Fernandez, SG Corey Brewer, SG Jordan Hamilton, 2012 DEN 1st

The most important part of the Carmelo trade for the Knicks was getting a true all-star talent in Gallinari to center their team and asset bank around. Depth like Lawson, Faried, Fernandez, Brewer, Hamilton, Chandler is also a great help. Nene and Afflalo rebounding from their slow starts to this season is important for the Nuggets. They were paid like an all-star and a high end starter respectively – If they don’ reach those standards without Carmelo’s attention creating shots for them, they will become negative value contracts.

19. Atlanta Hawks (2011 rank: #14)

Noteable assets: C Al Horford (all-star), PF Josh Smith (borderline all-star), SG Joe Johnson (overpaid all-star), PG Jeff Teague, 2012 ATL 1^st

The next two teams drops from last year’s list shows the perils of standing still while everyone else moves up, as well as most of the teams in this middle section being separated by very little. The Hawks have two all-star caliber big men in Horford and Smith and Teague is now proving a solid contributer on the perimeter. Johnson likely has little value because of his contract. If looking at the best pieces on the team, the Hawks rank well with the teams above them. But their asset depth is lacking.

20. Golden State Warriors (2011 rank: #13)

Noteable assets: PG Stephen Curry (young, potential all-star), SG Monta Ellis (borderline all-star), PF David Lee, SG Klay Thompson

The Warriors are almost an exact mirror of the Hawks in trade value, but with a talented backcourt in Curry and Lee to the Hawks’ frontcourt, and Lee taking Johnson’s place as a productive starter who’s paid too much. As with Atlanta, what separates them from the teams 14 to 18 are a lack of great assets after their first few borderline all-stars.

21. Portland Trailblazers (2011 rank: #18)

Noteable assets: PF Lamarcus Aldridge (all-star), SF Gerald Wallace, SG Wesley Matthews, PG Raymond Felton, SF Nic Batum, SG Jamal Crawford, 2012 POR 1st

Portland has a legitimate all-star in Aldridge, the problem is they have been bleeding asset value elsewhere on the roster since Kevin Pritchard’s exit by spending on win now veterans. Aldridge may be a more valuable piece than anyone the Warriors or Hawks have, but Horford and Smith or Curry and Ellis together outweigh Lamarcus alone. The Trailblazers are a good team but without a more asset preservation friendly plan they will be hard pressed to move upwards as players like Wallace, Felton, Crawford and Camby are phased out.

22. Sacramento Kings (2011 rank: #19)

Noteable assets: PF/C Demarcus Cousins, PG Tyreke Evans, 2012 SAC 1^st, SG Marcus Thornton, PG Jimmer Fredette, PF Jason Thompson

Cousins looks like a star in the making, but his lack of leadership hurts his value compared to a young star like Kyrie Irving. Tyreke Evans is losing his value as teams realize he may not reach the upside he flashed in his rookie season. A good draft pick this year gives the team another great asset, though the Kings talent level appears to be taking them to the second half of the lottery this season. The Kings have solid depth with pieces like Fredette, Thornton, but Cousins proving himself to be a true franchise player will be required to take the next step.

23. Detroit Pistons (2011 rank: #27)

Noteable assets: C Greg Monroe (young, potential superstar), 2012 Det 1^st, 2013 Det 1^st, PG Brandon Knight (rookie), PF Jonas Jerebko

The Pistons trade value is similar to the Kings, with Monroe and Cousins ranking near each other in value. Cousins has more talent, Monroe is more stable mentally, both are impressively productive right now. The teams will likely be picking near each other in the draft. The Kings asset depth is slightly more impressive than the Pistons’. Detroit can make a big leap up this list in the future if Greg Monroe proves himself a superstar talent and not a 2nd option one.

24. Milwaukee Bucks (2011 rank: #22)

Noteable assets: PG Brandon Jennings (young borderline all-star), C Andrew Bogut (borderline all-star C), PF Jon Leuer, SF Tobias Harris, 2012 Mil 1st

The Bucks’ trade value has been helped by Brandon Jennings turning into a near all-star, however Andrew Bogut’s latest season ending injury has seriously put a black mark his long term value. Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris look like good draft picks. The Bucks are not without assets, but without the help of great draft picks making a hefty rise from this spot will be hard.

25. Houston Rockets (2011 rank: #23)

Noteable assets: PG Kyle Lowry (Borderline all-star), SG Kevin Martin (borderline all-star), PF Luis Scola, SF Chase Budinger, C Samuel Dalembert, SF Chandler Parsons, PF Marcus Morris, PF/C Donatas Motiejunas, 2012 HOU 1st, 2012 NY 1st

The Rockets’ trade value is helped by a breakout season by Kyle Lowry. Kevin Martin and Luis Scola are productive getting no younger. The Rockets have a fantastic quantity of smaller assets in players like Budinger, Motiejunas, Morris, etc. – But they can only get so far with what seems to be definitively the least valuable “best asset” (likely Lowry) in the league. Motiejunas is key when he comes over from Europe. Most agreed he had top 5 talent in the 2011 draft and more often than not, all-star talent proves itself in the NBA.

26. Orlando Magic (2011 rank: #8)

Noteable assets: C Dwight Howard (superstar, free agent in half a season), PF Ryan Anderson, SG JJ Redick, PG Jameer Nelson, 2012 ORL 1st, SF Hedo Turkoglu (negative), PF Glen Davis (negative)

As I did with the Nets, I’ll project Howard’s trade value as what I see as his most likely deal – for Brook Lopez, Marshon Brooks, Kris Humphries and NJ’s 2012 and 2014’s 1^st. With these assets added to productive players like Anderson, Redick and Nelson, the Magic would resemble a Houston Rockets situation with a deep pool of assets but a weak “best” one.

27. Toronto Raptors (2011 rank: #25)

Noteable assets: PF Andrea Bargnani (borderline all-star), 2012 Tor 1^st, C Jonas Valanciunas, SG Demar Derozan, PF Ed Davis, PG Jerryd Bayless, SF James Johnson

Andrea Bargnani doesn’t have the value of the best piece on the next 2 teams, however the Raptors have strong asset depth backing him up with Derozan, Davis, Valanciunas and a good draft pick coming up. Derozan or Valanciunas proving they are a potential star and fortune in the lottery can move the Raptors up this list.

28. New Orleans Hornets (2011 rank: #9)

Noteable assets: SG Eric Gordon, 2012 NOH 1^st, 2012 Min 1^st, SF Al Farouq-Aminu

The Hornets made out quite well in the Chris Paul trade considering their lack of leverage at the time. Still, the value of the assets received in that deal has dropped since then. Gordon looks like a long term injury risk and is unextended, Aminu has been terrible, and Minnesota is playing like a playoff team. But they’re headed in the right direction bottoming out with those picks – if they get a star, added to Gordon they could rise back up this list.

29. Charlotte Bobcats (2011: #30)

Noteable assets: 2012 CHA 1^st, PG Kemba Walker, C Bismack Biyombo, PG DJ Augustin, SG Gerald Henderson, C BJ Mullens

After a franchise history of following “What not to do” from a trade value perspective, the Bobcats are finally on the way back up. A viciously bad 2012 season is locking up a top 5 pick for them in this draft and the Mullens acquisition proved to be a solid buy low asset decision. The jury is still out on the Walker and Biyombo picks, but with those 2, Augustin, Henderson, and Mullens, the Bobcats young talent is at the least have a prospect pool resembling a crowd, instead of a single guy playing solitaire. The 2012 pick being 1^st or 2^nd overall would be a big boon for the Bobcats’ trade value and future.

30. Phoenix Suns (2011 rank: #29)

Noteable assets: C Marcin Gortat (all-star caliber C), PG Steve Nash (old legend), 2012 Phx 1^st, PF Markieff Morris, C Robin Lopez

The Suns unfortunately have hit their bottom. Although they struck gold by acquiring Gortat from Orlando and Nash would still draw a return for half a season before unrestricted free agency, that’s about all you can say for the Suns assets. Truthfully, trading Nash before this season to ensure a high draft pick in 2012 was the move to make. As it stands the Bobcats uber valued 2012 pick and greater depth of young players gives them the edge.