A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

2012 NBA Mock Draft (Top 60, with explanations) – June 15th, 2012

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This is my 2nd 2012 NBA Mock draft and first including the 2nd round. I will do a 3rd one before the draft if my predictions greatly change. This list is based purely on speculation and guesses based on the information out there on teams and their history.

1. New Orleans Hornets – PF Anthony Davis: As big a lock to 1st overall as you can get. With Gordon, Davis and the most underrated coach in the league Monty Williams, the Hornets have the pieces to contend in a few years.

2. Charlotte Bobcats – SG Jeremy Lamb: I’m going with my gut that either Charlotte or Cleveland is in love with Jeremy Lamb’s effortless scoring talent. Lamb’s dynamic shot creation and spacing at the 2 guard spot is exactly what the Bobcats need.

3. Washington Wizards – SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: The Wizards have been remodeling their roster lately to one with more consistent character and less enigmas. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist adds to a potentially elite defensive core in the future, while fitting with the Wizards’ history of taking athletic players.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers – PF/C Meyers Leonard: With a star PG in Kyrie Irving, Leonard potentially gives the Cavaliers a 2nd huge piece as a C who can score in the post and block shots – completing the long term frontcourt beside PF Tristan Thompson and his rebounding/toughness.

5. Sacramento Kings – PF Thomas Robinson: The Kings need a player who’s impact doesn’t rely on shots, with his athleticism and rebounding and strength Robinson fits this and is an ideal match at PF beside Demarcus Cousins at C.

6. Portland Trailblazers – C Andre Drummond: Drummond is a nice fit in Portland, giving Lamarcus Aldridge a long term shotblocking C to play with. It is economical for Portland to draft a big man with the 6th pick and a guard with the 11th if they wish to fill both holes, due to the greater pool of guard talents than bigs likely to be there with the 2nd pick.

7. Golden State Warriors – SF Harrison Barnes: With Stephen Curry at PG, Klay Thompson at SG, David Lee at PF, and Andrew Bogut at C, Barnes is one of the most obvious fits in the draft as a long term starting SF. They appear to be interested in big man depth behind Lee and Bogut, but shoring up the long term starting lineup is their most likely move.

8. Toronto Raptors – SG Bradley Beal: Beal would be considered the clear cut best player available here, he’s an excellent fit for the Raptors giving them a needed long term scorer and shooter on the perimeter.

9. Detroit Pistons – PF John Henson: Henson is a need pick, providing shotblocking and doing the dirty work to complete their frontcourt beside C Greg Monroe’s offensive talent.

10. New Orleans Hornets – PF/C Jared Sullinger: It’s reported the Hornets are interested in Sullinger with this pick. He adds an interesting compliment to Davis and Emeka Okafor as a 3rd big man who can score in the post.

11. Portland Trailblazers – PG/SG Damian Lillard: Lillard fills the Blazers’ need for dribble drive offense and floor spacing shooting at the PG spot. He is favored to be picked by Portland 6th, thus if they get Robinson and Lillard is still available at 11, it would an ideal draft for them.

12. Milwaukee Bucks – PF Perry Jones III: The Bucks are precisely the team that needs to gamble on Jones III’s star upside, just as they did a few years ago in Brandon Jennings’ draft when he was considered an enigma.

13. Phoenix Suns – SG Dion Waiters: Waiters cancelled his workouts due to a promise from a lottery team, it’s heavily rumored the team is Phoenix. Waiters could run the perimeter offense in Phoenix post Steve Nash, which is likely the appeal for Waiters as well.

14. Houston Rockets – PF Arnett Moultrie: Moultrie is a value pick here for a team who’s strategy has been to stockpile assets. His athleticism, rebounding, touch and shooting make him a very plausible starter long term in the NBA.

15. Philadelphia 76ers – PF Royce White: The likely pick for Philadelphia is a power forward, with no minutes left for perimeter plays and no centers worth picking here. White’s athleticism and point forward ability resembling a young Boris Diaw compliments Philadelphia’s perimeter athletes well.

16. Houston Rockets – SF Jae Crowder: Crowder is a favorite of the draft statistical metrics crowd, due to his fantastic combination of 2 point %, rebounding, blocks, steals and assist to turnover ratio. He can be molded into playing a Shane Battier role as a shooter and defender on the perimeter for his former team the Rockets.

17. Dallas Mavericks –SG/SF Evan Fournier: Fournier has a smooth feel for the game and shot creating ability resembling a poor man’s Manu Ginobili. He’s the type of sneaky European pick that progressive franchises like the Mavericks, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, etc. are bound to be more interested in than everyone else.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves – SG Terrence Ross : Minnesota likely chooses between two SGs here in Ross and Austin Rivers, both of whom would fit their need for a scoring 2 guard beside Ricky Rubio. Ross gets the edge here for being bigger and more athletic.

19. Orlando Magic – SG Austin Rivers: An obvious fit for a post Dwight Howard planning Magic if they are, Rivers would get the touches on the perimeter on a rebuilding team, while being a surefire fan favorite as a hometown kid with a big profile.

20. Denver Nuggets – PF Andrew Nicholson: Nicholson is a nice fit for most good teams, because shooting big men who are defensively responsible will always have a niche and minutes available.

21. Boston Celtics – SF Moe Harkless: Harkless to the Celtics would resemble the Spurs getting Kawhi Leonard, as he’d add some badly needed young legs and length on the perimeter backing up Paul Pierce

22. Boston Celtics – PF/C Tyler Zeller: If a perimeter athlete is the Celtics’ biggest need, their second one is depth at center to spell Kevin Garnett, which makes Zeller a good fit.

23. Atlanta Hawks – SF/PF Terrence Jones: Although he doesn’t entirely fill a need, Jones is considered a lottery and starting talent and the Hawks need impact talent in any form. Jones is good value here.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers –PF Eric Griffin: My pick of Griffin for the Cavaliers is based on my belief that they heavily use draft statistic metrics in their picks. Griffin is a great athlete whose 2pt%, rebound, block and steal numbers are terrific and who’s flashed a little shooting range.

25. Memphis Grizzlies – SG Doron Lamb: Memphis has been one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the league for years and needed more bench scoring last season, Lamb helps both categories.

26. Indiana Pacers – PG Kendall Marshall: Marshall would be considered great value here and the Pacers need strong PG play. The reason Marshall would fall this far is how few teams are looking to draft PG (and the talented Scott Machado falling to Round 2 can blame the same thing).

27. Miami Heat – C Miles Plumlee: The fit for Miami seems to be getting center depth at this spot, between Plumlee and Fab Melo I expect the former’s rebounding, ability and stronger efficiency finishing inside gives him the edge over Melo, who somewhat replicates Joel Anthony’s skillset.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder: SF/PF Draymond Green – The Thunder’s biggest need is a shooting power forward. Although Quincy Miller would also fit that role, Green’s polish and basketball IQ give him the edge for the Thunder for me.

29. Chicago Bulls: SF/PF Quincy Miller – As with the Thunder, Miller is a great fit for the Bulls because power forwards who shoot can always find niche minutes on a team. He fills a role and gives them long term upside.

30. Golden State Warriors: C Fab Melo – The Warriors need depth at center behind Andrew Bogut because of his injury history and have been seemingly obsessed with increasing their size since new ownership and Jerry West got involved –  Melo falling to them at this pick is an ideal situation.

2nd round

31. Charlotte Bobcats: SG/SF Darius Miller – My gut feeling on the Bobcats draft last year is that Rich Cho selected their first pick (Bismack Biyombo) and Michael Jordan their second (Kemba Walker), due to how much Walker fit the latter’s history of favoring big college names. If true I would predict this is a Jordan pick and Miller being in the spotlight of Kentucky’s championship team fits his style.

32. Washington Wizards: SG Orlando Johnson – Johnson is getting some attention due to his athleticism, size and 3pt shooting season in college. He would fit at SG in Washington’s system.

33. Cleveland Cavaliers: SG Marcus Denmon – Denmon is a strong shooter and high IQ player and is another statistical crowd favorite. He should fit in Cleveland in a Daniel Gibson style of play.

34. Cleveland Cavaliers: C Kyle O’Quinn – Like Griffin, O’Quinn was one of the more efficient scorers in the draft, while having solid rebound and block numbers. Although this is the 3rd big man for Cleveland taken, there are a team who’s lacked depth in the past and likely recognize in the 2nd round getting any long term NBA talent is the goal.

35. Golden State Warriors: PG/SG Tony Wroten, Jr. – After picking up an extremely physically gifted but enigmatic prospect in Jeremy Tyler last year in the first round, Wroten, Jr. and his tremendous size and athleticism but flawed skill game,  would be a solid value pick for the Warriors to develop off their bench..

36. Sacramento Kings: SF Jeff Taylor – Taylor would be considered a steal at this point, as with his athleticism and improved shooting game make him a likely rotation player long term at SF

37. Toronto Raptors: PG Scott Machado – Machado had one of the best passing seasons in decades at Iona and is a sneaky athlete and shooter. He would be a terrific fit for Toronto, who’s looking for long term PG talent.

38. Denver Nuggets: C Furkan Aldemir – The Nuggets have little open spots in their rotation, Aldemir who has legitimate center size and some skills, is a nice Euro stash pick for them.

39. Detroit Pistons: PF Drew Gordon – Gordon is an outstanding rebounder and good athlete, he adds to the Pistons’ big man depth after the John Henson pick.

40. Portland Trailblazers: SG/SF Will Barton – Barton has great athleticism and length, despite needing the bulk up he’s a value upside pick here for the Blazers

41. Portland Trailblazers: C Festuz Ezeli – Ezeli has the physical tools to play center in the league, he provides some depth to the Blazers’ frontcourt

42. Milwaukee Bucks: PG Marquis Teague – Teague is raw, but a talented PG physically enough to likely be considered a huge steal if he falls this far.

43. Atlanta Hawks: C Garrett Stutz – Stutz has legitimate center size and rebounded well in college. The Hawks have been looking to get bigger for years, thus he fits the profile.

44. Detroit Pistons: PG/SG Tyshawn Taylor – Taylor has legitimate size and athleticism for a guard, he can provide depth off the Pistons’ bench, especially on the defensive end.

45. Philadelphia 76ers: PF Kevin Jones – Jones is a tough rebounder and energy player, he can find his way into the Sixers big men rotation and Doug Collins’ requirements on that alone.

46. Washington Wizards: SG John Jenkins – Jenkins is considered one of the best shooters in the draft, considering their need for shooters, he’s a great fit for Washington.

47. Utah Jazz: SG Tomas Satoransky – With an already deep team of young players, Utah might be a team best served taking a Satoransky and stashing him in Europe. He has solid size and creating ability for a combo guard and can develop into an NBA player.

48. New York Knicks: PF Quincy Acy – The Knicks need rebounding and big man depth, Acy is a perfect fit for them

49. Orlando Magic: PG Casper Ware – After the success of the Kings taking Isaiah Thomas last year, with his toughness and skill making up for shorter size, a team may feel they can recreate that Magic (pun intended) by drafting Casper.

50. Denver Nuggets: SG Kim English – English had a solid final season at Missouri, his shooting could fit the Nuggets’ system.

51. Boston Celtics: SG/SF Kevin Murphy – With Ray Allen’s free agency status uncertain, Kevin Murphy’s size and scoring ability could give him SG minutes next season

52. Golden State Warriors: C Robert Sacre – The Warriors add to their center depth by getting another 7 footer in Sacre

53. Los Angeles Clippers: PF/C Bernard James – Like many teams in the 2nd round I suspect the Clippers top goal is to get useable big men, although James is 27 and 3 months older than Chris Paul, he had a season that would otherwise indicate NBA potential

54. Philadelphia 76ers: PG Jared Cunningham – Cunningham is a physically talented combo guard, watching Lou Williams from the bench for a year might be a great fit for him

55. Dallas Mavericks: C Dusan Cantekin – Cantekin is a 7’4 center project from Serbia, Dallas would be hoping this Euro stash pick turns out like similarly late in the draft ones on Marcin Gortat and Omar Asik.

56. Toronto Raptors: SF Kris Joseph – Considering Joseph is one of the few Canadian prospects in the draft, the Raptors will feel pressured to take him if he falls to what it considered a worthless pick. As a SF who can shoot a little, he isn’t a terrible fit though.

57. New Jersey Nets: PF Mike Scott – Scott was a solid inside and out scorer and rebounder his last year at Virginia. At a pick this late New Jersey will be happy to get a potential NBA talent.

58. Minnesota Timberwolves: C Ognjen Kuzmic – The Timberwolves had success taking and Euro stashing Nikola Pekovic back in 2008 and their pick of Qatari prospect Tanguy Ngombo last year proves David Kahn is willing to try the sneaky unheard of international player pick. Kuzmic is a legit 7 footer who rebounded and scored efficiency his past season.

59. San Antonio Spurs: PG Josep Franch – Franch is a creative ballhandlign guard from Spain. If the Spurs draft a sneaky European pick, it’s probably a good bet to accept he’ll be good, whether it’s Franch or someone else.

60. Los Angeles Lakers: SF/PF Robbie Hummel – Hummel is an excellent shooter, he may be able to earn some niche rotation minutes at the 4 to spread the floor for Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant

Written by jr.

June 15, 2012 at 5:12 pm

Posted in NBA Draft

Tagged with , ,

One Response

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  1. Just a note, apparently execs are saying Jordan will be making the Bobcats 2nd overall pick – So I would correct myself and put Robinson or Beal at 2nd now


    June 17, 2012 at 12:35 pm

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