A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

Final Mock Draft (June 28th, 2012)

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A final mock draft. I have no sources, these are just guesses. To mix it up a bit, I have included a confidence % beside each pick, showing how strongly I feel the team would make this pick. I have also included the “alternative pick”, showing who I’d have 2nd on their board at that pick.

1. New Orleans Hornets – PF Anthony Davis: A lock to go 1st, no use discussing it. Confidence: 100%. Alternate pick: N/A

2. Charlotte Bobcats – PF Thomas Robinson: Charlotte seems a candidate to move down to 4 with Cleveland, but Robinson seemingly is their target either way. Confidence level: 75%. Alternate pick: SF Harrison Barnes

3. Washington Wizards – SG Bradley Beal: Washington’s trade for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza seems to foreshadow their target is Beal, to fill their need for shooting and scoring at the 2. Confidence level: 90%. Alternate pick: SF Harrison Barnes

4. Cleveland Cavaliers – SG Dion Waiters: Last year Cleveland’s pick of Tristan Thompson, a) Was kept almost a perfect secret until the day of the draft, and b) Apparently made on statistical metrics. The stats love Waiters and hate Harrison Barnes, the consensus best player available here. I have Cleveland matching the conditions of the Thompson pick by taking Waiters. Confidence level: 50%. Alternate pick: SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

5. Sacramento Kings – C Andre Drummond: The heavy word is that Sacramento will be trading this pick to Houston if Robinson isn’t available here and that the Rockets target is seemingly Drummond. Confidence level: 75%. Alternate pick: SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

6. Portland Trailblazers – PG Damian Lillard: Lillard to Portland seems one of the closest thing to a leaked pick so far. What sold it for me is the story of Lillard killing a workout in front of Paul Allen and then the entire team staff going out for dinner with him, followed word coming out that Portland considered the workout the best since Durant’s in 2007. Smells like a done deal. Confidence level: 85%. Alternate pick: SF Harrison Barnes

7. Golden State Warriors – SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: “MKG” falling to 7 is a dream result for the Warriors. With their backcourt shooting, they need a big, defensive glue guy at SF. Confidence level: 97%. Alternate pick: C Meyers Leonard

8. Toronto Raptors – SF Harrison Barnes: The Raptors’ two holes are PG and SF. Barnes falling here makes him a perfect fit for the Raptors. Confidence level: 80%. Alternate pick: SG Austin Rivers

9. Detroit Pistons – PF/C Meyers Leonard: Leonard is a high upside two way big man, which is what the Pistons are looking for long term beside Greg Monroe. Confidence level: 50%. Alternate pick: PF John Henson

10. New Orleans Hornets – SG Austin Rivers: The Hornets are apparently fans of Rivers and don’t mind drafting another SG behind Eric Gordon. Confidence level: 40%. Alternate pick: SG Terrence Ross.

11. Portland Trailblazers – PF John Henson: With Lillard picked at 6, the Blazers compliment the pick by getting a big man to help defensively in the frontcourt beside Lamarcus Aldridge: Confidence level: 35%. Alternate pick: SG Terrence Ross

12. Houston Rockets – SG Jeremy Lamb: The Rockets likely aren’t keeping any of these picks in the teens, getting them for bigger goals – But in the imaginary world of mock drafts supposing they were, Lamb is an excellent high upside pick here and long term Kevin Martin replacement. Confidence level: 40%. Alternate pick: PF Arnett Moultrie

13. Phoenix Suns – SG Terrence Ross: The Suns need upside and scoring talent to start rebuilding post Steve Nash. Ross has been a hot product lately and is a terrific fit for this pick. Confidence level: 80%. Alternate pick: PG/SG Tony Wroten, Jr.

14. Milwaukee Bucks – PF Perry Jones III: With the Samuel Dalembert trade, the Bucks can afford to have a defensively unreliable big man at the 4. Jones III gives them badly needed star upside, like the Brandon Jennings pick a few years ago. Confidence level: 20%. Alternate pick: PF John Henson

15. Philadelphia 76ers – PF Royce White: White is a unique forward, an athletic PF who can pass the ball like a point forward. This makes him a nice fit running the break with Philadelphia’s athletes. Confidence level: 15%. Alternate pick: PF Terrence Jones

16. Houston Rockets – PF Arnett Moultrie: Moultrie is another value stocking pick for the Rockets, with nice athleticism, skill and productivity making him a very plausible future starter. Confidence level: 30%. Alternate pick: SF Moe Harkless

17. Dallas Mavericks – PG/SG Tony Wroten, Jr. – The Mavericks are seemingly looking to start reloading for the post Dirk Nowitzki era on the fly while he’s still there – Wroten, Jr. is a high upside for the project for the future, while giving the team badly needed young athleticism on the perimeter until then. Confidence level: 15%. Alternate pick: PG Kendall Marshall

18. Houston Rockets – PF/C Jared Sullinger – If a team took had 3 picks in the teens in this imaginary world where Houston keeps its picks, taking a chance on Sullinger and his back issues would be excellent value. Confidence level: 15%. Alternate pick: PF Terrence Jones.

19. Orlando Magic – SF Moe Harkless. Harkless is a young athletic talent with upside. The Magic can afford to wait with a long rebuild awaiting post Dwight Howard. Confidence level: 10%. Alternate pick: PG Kendall Marshall

20. Denver Nuggets – PF Andrew Nicholson – Nicholson is a skilled, experienced stretch power forward. With offense up front as a need in Denver, he fills a need. Confidence level: 30%. Alternate pick: PG Kendall Marshall

21. Boston Celtics – C Tyler Zeller

22. Boston Celtics – SG/SF Will Barton – These picks primarily fill needs for Boston. Zeller gives them center depth to spell Kevin Garnett, and the Barton pick is a hope to strike the same gold San Antonio did with Kawhi Leonard last year by injecting young legs on the perimeter to an aging team. Confidence level: 25%. Alternate picks: PF Terrence Jones, C Fab Melo

23. Atlanta Hawks – C Fab Melo – The Hawks desperately want a center so they can move Horford to PF. Melo is raw, but he’s the best they can get at the position. Confidence level: 60%. Alternate pick: PF Terrence Jones

24. Cleveland Cavaliers – SF Jae Crowder – The Cavaliers smell like a statistical team to me and Crowder is a big favorite for the statheads due to his efficiency and rebounding, block, steal numbers. He can fill SF minutes next year beside the Irving and Waiters backcourt. Confidence level: 40%. Alternate pick: PF Terrence Jones

25. Memphis Grizzlies – SF/PF Terrence Jones – Jones is huge value this low in the draft. He gives Memphis needed production off the bench and a player who can fill SF minutes if they decide to trade Rudy Gay. Confidence level: 80%. Alternate pick: SG Doron Lamb

26. Indiana Pacers – PG Kendall Marshall – Marshall falls this far because of the lack of teams who need a PG talent or have the minutes for one. Indiana is one of those teams. Marshall is a perfect fit for their lineup. Confidence level: 80%. Alternate pick: SG/SF Evan Fournier

27. Miami Heat – PF/C Miles Plumlee – Plumlee is a nice fit in Miami providing rebounding, finishing and general athleticism to their frontcourt. Confidence level: 20%. Alternate pick: PF/C Kyle O’Quinn

28. Oklahoma City Thunder – SF/PF Draymond Green – The one thing Oklahoma City can really fit on their roster is a player who can stretch the floor at the 3 and 4 positions, like Jeff Green used to do. Quincy Miller and Green fit the bill the most, Green is more experienced and ready for an immediate title run. Confidence level: 30%. Alternate pick: SG/SF Evan Fournier.

29. Chicago Bulls – SF/PF Quincy Miller – Miller fits a need for the Bulls as a ¾ who can shoot 3s, while also being a solid upside pick. Confidence level: 20%. Alternate pick: SG/SF Evan Fournier

30. Golden State Warriors – PG/SG Jared Cunningham – Cunningham is becoming a hot product because of his size and athleticism at the ½. He adds a needed defensive compliment to the Steph Curry and Klay Thompson backcourt. Confidence level: 15%. Alternate pick: C Festus Ezeli.

31. Charlotte Bobcats – SG/SF Evan Fournier – The Bobcats now have a long term plan and patience. Fournier may not come over immediately, but could be a huge upside pick for Rich Cho, MJ and co. down the road worth this pick. Confidence level: 35%. Alternate pick: SG/SF Darius Miller.

32. Washington Wizards – SG/SF Darius Miller – The Wizards have tried to get more professional with the Nene and Okafor/Ariza trades. Miller is an experienced senior who can guard a few positions for them. Confidence level: 5%. Alternate pick: SG Doron Lamb

33. Cleveland Cavaliers – PF/C Eric Griffin

34. Cleveland Cavaliers – PF/C Kyle O’Quinn – Both these picks are athletic big men who test out well by statistical metrics. After drafting perimeter player with each of its 1sts, Cleveland fills out its frontcourt with depth. Confidence level: 5%. Alternate picks: SG Doron Lamb, SG John Jenkins

35. Golden State Warriors – C Festus Ezeli – The Warriors need center depth behind Andrew Bogut – Ezeli is raw, but has a chance to get a spot in the rotation next year. Confidence level: 30%. Alternate pick: PF Drew Gordon

36. Sacramento Kings – PF Drew Gordon: If they take a perimeter player with their 1st, it’s likely the Kings try to fill a big man position with this pick, as they don’t have the minutes or touches to fit another perimeter player. Gordon is a solid, productive athlete. Confidence level: 5%. Alternate pick: PF Kevin Jones

37. Toronto Raptors – PG Scott Machado: Machado falling this far is perfect for the Raptors who are lacking young PG talent – They’d hope to follow this up by signing Steve Nash as the perfect mentor for Machado to learn from. Confidence level: 25%. Alternate pick: PG Marquis Teague

38. Denver Nuggets – PG Marquis Teague – The Nuggets could very well take Teague at 20th due to how his speed at PG could replace Andre Miller and fit their system. If he lasts this long it’ll be a terrific fit. Confidence level: 70%. Alternate pick: SG Doron Lamb

39. Detroit Pistons – SG Doron Lamb – It’s incredible that a guaranteed 3pt shooter in the NBA in Lamb could fall this far, but if he does the Pistons will happy to add him in the wake of trading Ben Gordon at SG. Confidence level: 50%. Alternate pick: SG John Jenkins

40. Portland Trailblazers – SG John Jenkins

41. Portland Traiblazers – PF Kevin Jones – Jenkins and Jones fill two NBA roles, hitting 3s and rebounding. This compliments Portland’s depth as they hope to make a leap back into the playoffs next season. Confidence level: 5%. Alternate picks: SG Kim English, SF Jeff Taylor

42. Milwaukee Bucks – SG/SF Kevin Murphy – The Bucks have been the kings of drafting in the 2nd round, so whatever they do, expect it to be good. Kevin Murphy was a great scorer in college and has the athleticism to step onto an NBA court. Confidence level: 5%. Alternate pick: SG Orlando Johnson

43. Atlanta Hawks – C Garrett Stutz – The Hawks are so desperate for a C that they might as well use their 2nd trying to find one too. Confidence level: 5%. Alternate pick: C Robert Sacre

44. Detroit Pistons – SF Jeff Taylor – Taylor has solid versatility in his skill level and physical tools. He would be considered great value here. Confidence level: 5%. Alternate pick: PF Quincy Acy

45. Philadelphia 76ers: C Robert Sacre – Sacre is a warm body. Philadelphia needs those at C. Confidence level: 5%. Alternate pick: PG/SG Tyshawn Taylor

46. New Orleans Hornets: C Furkan Aldemir

47. Utah Jazz – SF Kostas Papanikolaou

48. New York Knicks – PF Mike Scott

49. Orlando Magic – SG Orlando Johnson

50. Denver Nuggets – PF Quincy Acy

51. Boston Celtics – PF JaMychal Green

52. Golden State Warriors – SG Kim English

53. Los Angeles Clippers – SF Kris Joseph

54. Philadelphia 76ers – C Henry Sims

55. Dallas Mavericks – C Dusan Cantekin

56. Toronto Raptors – PG/SG Tomas Satoransky

57. Brooklyn Nets – SG Hollis Thompson

58. Minnesota Timberwolves – C Ognjen Kuzmic

59. San Antonio Spurs – PG Josep Franch

60. Los Angeles Lakers – PF/C Bernard James

 

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Written by jr.

June 28, 2012 at 2:28 pm

Posted in NBA Draft

Tagged with , ,

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