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Basketball philosophy

Draft Prospect Friday: Wes Johnson, Austin Rivers and problems with judging 3pt shooting prospects

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English: Wes Johnson during a game on 2009-12-...

English: Wes Johnson during a game on 2009-12-22. Cropped from a larger image. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

(Couldn’t get this article up yesterday. Pretend it was posted on Friday)

One of the most disastrous draft picks in recent history is the Minnesota Timberwolves taking Wes Johnson 4th overall. Johnson did so little his first two seasons in the league, that the Timberwolves were forced to include a 1st round pick just to dump his rookie contract. He has not looked like a legitimate NBA rotation player so far.

Fascinatingly, Johnson in 2010 got picked so high because he was labelled a “safe” pick. While Demarcus Cousins had more upside, Johnson would be a sure thing – Mainly because in college, he hit open 3s, defended, rebounding and played on the fastbreak and could play SG and SF. While a likely role player, this skillset is something every team needs.

While his defense hasn’t come around, the biggest problem for Wes Johnson is how his jumpshot has disappeared. After shooting 41.5% from 3 in his final season in the NCAA, his 3P% has dropped to a mediocre 34.1% for his career in the NBA, including 31.4% his sophmore season. Without a consistent spot-up jumpshot, Wes doesn’t have a useable offensive role on a team.

There are a number of reasons why Johnson’s shot may not have translated. One is that the NCAA 3pt line is shorter than the NBA 3pt line. While you’d think a player can extend his range a few feet out in the NBA, it’s not a guarantee everyone can. Secondly, Johnson was not a 3pt shooter until fairly late in his career. He shot 29.4% from 3 his freshman year in college  at Iowa St., 33.3% his sophmore year, before jumping to 41.5% his junior year after transferring to Syracuse. Because of the shorter college season, Johnson’s yearly 3pt % his junior season may have been prone to small sample size variance – going 51 for 123 from 3, whereas if he’d hit 10 3s less, going 41 for 123, he’d have had a 3p% of .333 that he had in his sophmore year. 10 3s over a season can be a matter of simply getting lucky. Third, Wes’s college FT% of .768 was decent, but not great. Another sign perhaps of worry, is the fact that while FT% remained steady throughout his college career, going from .753 his freshman year, to .779 his sophmore year, to .772 his junior season. This is worrisome because normally when a player has a huge change in shooting ability from 3 like Wes did from freshman year to junior season, they should also improve their FT stroke to prove they simply drastically changed their shooting skill level – which Wes didn’t.

The point is, there are ways to judge whether a player’s 3P% will translate, that goes beyond just looking at their NCAA scores. It’s not as simple as just saying a player like Johnson is a safe bet to translate. Judging these contextual factors could help teams avoid a similar situation in the future.

One player who’s shooting looks worrisome to me, is Austin Rivers. Although he shot .365 in college in 3P%, he only shot 65.8% from the FT line, an extremely low number for any so called 3pt threat in the NBA. His shooting form is seriously questionable (using 2 hands), and before the draft he couldn’t complete the “Ray Allen shooting drill” for the Wizards in a pre-draft workout. So far in preseason, his jump-shot has looked terrible.

Rivers desperately needs a jumpshot to make it in league. He is an undersized SG with questionable court awareness and feel for the game. He needs to be a player that can consistently rip off shots from the outside in spurts, like Jamal Crawford and JR Smith can. I suspect Rivers getting taken 10th overall was with the assumption he’d shoot in the NBA. But it’s not a guarantee just because he shot over 36% from 3 in college, as Wes Johnson proved.

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Written by jr.

October 20, 2012 at 3:40 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. Really enjoyed this. Was wondering what you thought about a couple of other guys who have struggled a bit with their shot since coming to the league. No there’s many you could talk about but was curious about Alec Burks and Reggie Jackson of OKC

    Michael

    October 22, 2012 at 10:05 pm

    • Reggie Jackson is a guy that definitely blindsided me with his lack of shooting so far (I had him as a top 10 prospect in 2011), in retrospect the same red flags were there as for Wes – spent his first two years as a weak 3pt shooter and was never an elite FT shooter (though improved his final college season). One encouraging thing for him though is that his FT% his rookie year was excellent, following an improvement from his college season. I wouldn’t rule him out, especially with a good development team like OKC. Alec Burks was expected to have a weak jumpshot needing years to refine coming out of college so I wouldn’t say his path has been unexpected so far.

      A player who actually fits the Wes Johnson profile to a tee is Adam Morrison. He only shot 30-31% from 3 his first two years in college before jumping to 43% his final year, and his FT% was always from 72-77%, decent but not great. I believe the reason Ammo didn’t make it has actually been slightly misdiagnosed. While being a crap athlete is a big reason for bombing in the league, I think if Ammo was a great shooter like Korver, Redick, Budinger, etc. he’d have had a longtime place in NBA rotations. Those players are “1” in physical impact in 33pt terms, but their skill and feel for the game is strong enough to make up for it for long NBA careers. Ammo has their feel for the game but not the skill. His shots don’t go in and his career 3P/FT numbers are very weak (33%/71% for his career). I give him almost identical 33pt splits as Wes actually

      julienrodger

      October 22, 2012 at 10:25 pm


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