A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

Do we have the title favorite wrong? Check out Oklahoma City’s historical point differential

leave a comment »

Wizards v/s Thunder 03/14/11

Wizards v/s Thunder 03/14/11 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

With the Miami Heat on an 18 game winning streak and Lebron playing at a historic level, many people are resigning that they’re the easy favorites to repeat for the title. Myself included.

As for the Thunder, I have my doubts because I personally I tend to think their brand of athleticism over skills/fundamentals, is typical of teams that do better in the regular season than playoffs. I’ve been pushing the Spurs as the true favorite in the West.

Then I saw the Thunder’s SRS (point differential, adjusted for competition): +9.5! How impressive is that number? Check out this list of teams above 9 in SRS here

If they finish above 9 in SRS, they’ll be only the 9th team to do it. Currently, their +9.5 would rank 6th all time. Of the 8 teams to finish above 9 before – the 71 Bucks, 72 Bucks, 72 Lakers, 86 Celtics, 92 Bulls, 96 Bulls, 97 Bulls and 08 Celtics, only the 72 Bucks didn’t win the title – because they lost to the 72 Lakers, who had an even higher SRS – someone had to lose. So historically once a team crossed that point differential barrier, they’ve become unbeatable by mere mortal teams.

This is a big deal. While it’s a small sample size and eventually “someone has to lose”, until that historical streak is broken, it’s arguably enough to at least, call the Thunder the favorite.

Written by jr.

March 11, 2013 at 5:39 pm

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: