A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

2016 NBA draft ratings – January update

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My current rankings for the 2016 NBA Draft. Compared to the methodology in my last update I decide to make a change to the stats rating part of it. Instead of using freshman per minute stats for every player, I use the most recent season for sophomores, juniors or seniors for rebounding, assists, steals and blocks, but their freshman scoring rates. This was based off testing previous drafts and finding it did more damage than good to exclude improvements in the non-scoring statistics. In scoring players improving their scoring rate as they get older is more of a given player to player, as they are given a bigger role in the coach’s offense.

1. PF Ben Simmons

What the scouts say: Simmons is an explosive athlete with a strong body and quality length and lateral mobility for a PF. Based on this I will give him an 8 in physical impact talent. His lack of a jumpshot is considered his biggest weakness by scouts but is a skilled passer for his position. I will give him a 6 in skill impact based on rating him as a 5 as a shooter then upgrading him for passing. His feel for the game rated one of the best in the class by scouts and snd draws comparisons to Lebron’s vision. I will rate him a 9 in feel for the game based on this.

Simmons is averaging 2.1 steals, 1.3 blocks (3.4 combined steals and blocks), 15.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 23.7 points, .62 TS% per 40 minutes. Based on the median of recent PFs I’d give him a B if he averaged 1.4 steals, 2.1 blocks (3.5 combined steals/blocks), 12.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 19.2 points, .63 TS%. Simmons is about average in steals and blocks combined but but his rebounding, assists and scoring numbers dominate enough to deserve an A.

Talent rating: 23 (Physical impact: 8, Skill impact: 6, Feel for the Game: 9)

Advanced stats grade: A

23 * A (100%) = 23.0

2. PG Kris Dunn

What the scouts say: Dunn is a great athlete at PF and has a strong combination of length, strength and lateral mobility. Based on this I give him a rating of 9 in physical impact talent. His jumpshooting talent is known as OK but improvable. I will give him a 6 based on this. His feel for the game is rated by scouts as only ok as he can play out of control. I will rate him a 6 based on this.

Dunn is averaging 3.8 steals, 1.1 blocks (4.9 combined steals and blocks), 8 rebounds, 8.4 assists per 40 minutes, and as a freshman put up 8.4 points on .47 TS% per 40. Based on recent PG successes I’d have given him a B if he had averaged 2.3 steals, 0.3 blocks (2.6 combined steals/blocks), 5.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 15 points, .55 TS%. In every area but his freshman scoring numbers, Dunn is dominating. I don’t want to give him a perfect A  with the blackmark of that freshman scoring rate, but I will split the difference between that and a median B, by giving him an A/B.

Talent rating: 21 (Physical impact: 9, Skill impact: 6, Feel for the Game: 6, Total: 21)

Advanced stats grade: A/B

21 * A/B (95%) = 19.95

T-3. SF Brandon Ingram

What the scouts say: Ingram is a good but not elite athlete. His length is tremendous for a SF like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant but is skinny for a SF. Based on this I will rate him a 7 in physical impact talent. For scouts he is known as a good outside shooting talent. I will rate him a 7 in this. He is known to have an advanced feel for the game. I will rate him an 8 in feel for the game based on this.

Ingram is averaging 1.7 steals, 2.0 blocks (3.7 combined steals/blocks), 7.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 21.1 points, .58 TS% per 40 minutes. Based on the median of recent SFs, I’d have given him a B if he’d averaged 1.9 steals, 1.0 blocks (2.9 combined steals/blocks), 10.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 16.5 points, .55 TS% per 40 minutes. Ingram’s block rate is great and he is an above average scorer, though he’s marginally below average in steals and below average in rebounding and assists. I will give him a median grade of B based on having a notably weak category in rebounding and some other mediocre ones like assists and steals, to counteract strengths like blocks and scoring.

Talent rating: 22 (Physical impact: 7, Skill impact: 7, Feel for the Game: 8)

Advanced stats grade: B

22 * B (90%) = 19.8

T-3. SG Denzel Valentine

What the scouts say: Valentine is an unexplosive athlete although has an above average combination of length and strength for a SG. I will rate him as a 4 in physical impact for this. Valentine is an excellent shooting and passing talent at SG and is known as having one of the best feels for the game in the class. I will rate him a 9 in both categories for this.

Valentine is averaging 1.4 steals, 0.3 blocks (1.7 combined steals/blocks), 9.8 rebounds, 8.5 assists per 40 minutes. As a freshman he averaged 9.7 points on .52 TS% per 40. Based on the median of recent SGs I’d have given Valentine a B if he had averaged 1.8 steals, 0.5 blocks (2.3 combined steals/blocks), 6.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists and as a freshman 16.9 points on .57 TS% per 40 minutes. Valentine has a below average combined steals and blocks, dominates rebounds and assists for his position and had a low scoring rate as a freshman. Since his best categories he’s dominant in, I won’t go lower than a median B for Valentine despite some weaker categories.

Talent rating: 22 (Physical impact: 4, Skill impact: 9, Feel for the Game: 9)

Advanced stats grade: B

22 * B (90%) = 19.8.

5. PF Zhou Qi

What the scouts say: Like Kristaps Porzingis, Zhou is tall and athletic. He would have one of the biggest wingspans in the NBA with the ability to move laterally but a painfully skinny frame for his size. Based on how scouts value wingspans compared to frame I will put his body features on the positive side and give him a 7 in physical impact talent when added to his athleticism. Zhou has a perimeter orientated game and projects as a 3pt shooter in the NBA. I will give him a 7 in skill impact for this. His feel for the game is a mystery but scouts likely give him the benefit of the doubt so I won’t go lower than a 6 in this category.

How to evaluate his stats is one of the most difficult in the class. For Euroleague players my strategy is to give them a grade as if their stats occurred in the NCAA, then give them one higher grade to account for competition. The CBA has a smaller track record to test this on. Are his stats more impressive than if he had had occurred in the NCAA or less? I’ll split the difference and treat them as if they happened in the NCAA. Zhou averages 1.2 steals, 4.2 blocks (5.4 combined steals and blocks), 11.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists per 40 minutes, and his first season in the CBA he averaged 19.3 points on .72 TS%.  Based on my spreadsheet of the median college performance of recent PF successes, I’d have given him a B if he averaged 1.4 steals, 2.1 blocks (3.5 combined steals/blocks), 12.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists per 40 minutes, and 19.2 points on .63 TS% as a freshman per 40. His steals and blocks combined is above average, is a slightly below average rebounder and passer, and is an above average scorer when taking into account efficiency. Since he has a few below average categories I won’t give him a full A, but with no glaring weaknesses and more strengths, I’ll give him more than a B and go with A/B.

Talent rating: 20 (Physical impact: 7, Skill impact: 7, Feel for the Game: 6)

Advanced stats grade: A/B

20 * A/B (95%) = 19.0

T-6. SF Taurean Prince

What the scouts say: Prince is a good but not great athlete and his ball handling could hurt his ability to get to the rim. His size and lateral mobility is excellent for a wing. I will give him a 7 in physical impact based on this. He is a quality spot up shooter although isn’t the best at creating shots. I will give him a 6 in skill impact based on this. Prince’s feel for the game has been criticized in the past. I will rate him a 6 in the category.

Prince is averaging 2.3 steals, 0.9 blocks (3.2 combined steals/blocks), 7.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists per 40 minutes and averaged 20.9 points on .64 TS% as a freshman per 40. Based on the median of recent SFs, I’d have given him a B if he’d averaged 1.9 steals, 1.0 blocks (2.9 combined steals/blocks), 10.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 16.5 points, .55 TS% per 40 minutes. His steal and block rate is above average, his rebounding is below average, his assists are well above average and his freshman scoring rate was excellent in volume and efficiency. Based on the one weak category rebounds I’ll hold back from a full A but for otherwise excellence will give him an A/B.

Talent rating: 19 (Physical impact: 7, Skill impact: 6, Feel for the Game: 6)

Advanced stats grade: A/B

19 * A/B (95%) = 18.05

T-6. SF Troy Williams

Williams is considered an great athlete by scouts, although his size and length isn’t great for a wing. I will rate him a 7 in physical impact ability. His jumpshot is considered a weakness, although he is known for passing skills for his position.  I will give him a 5 for shooting and bump him one up for passing and give him a 6 in skill impact. His feel for the game has been questioned although scouts may give him a benefit of the doubt. I will rate him a 6 in that category.

Williams is averaging 2.1 steals, 1.6 blocks (3.7 combined steals/blocks), 10.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists per 40 minutes and averaged 13.6 points on .56 TS% as a freshman per 40.  Based on the median of recent SFs, I’d have given him a B if he’d averaged 1.9 steals, 1.0 blocks (2.9 combined steals/blocks), 10.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 16.5 points, .55 TS% per 40 minutes. Williams is above average in steals and blocks combined, about average in rebounding, above average in assists and his freshman scoring rate is a little below average. I won’t give him a full A with his below average freshman scoring rate but seems deserving as more than a median grade, so I will go with A/B.

Talent rating: 19 (Physical impact: 7, Skill impact: 6, Feel for the Game: 6)

Advanced stats grade: A/B

19 * A/B (95%) = 18.05

T-8. PG Melo Trimble

What the scouts say: Trimble has an average combination of athleticism and length for a PG. I will rate him a 5 based on this. He is known for his great outside shooting ability and shot creating skills. I will rate him an 8 in skill impact based on this. His feel for the game is known as a strength for him. I will rate him a 7 in feel for the game based on this.

Trimble is averaging 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks (2.0 combined steals/blocks), 3.3 rebounds, 7.5 assists per 40 minutes. His freshman scoring rate was 19.4 points on .63 TS%. Based on recent PGs I’d have given a B if he had averaged 2.3 steals, 0.3 blocks (2.6 combined steals/blocks), 5.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 15 points, .55 TS% per 40 minutes. His steal and block rate is slightly below average, his rebounding is below average, his assists is above average and his scoring rate and efficiency is well above average. Due to the strength of his passing and scoring and respectable steal and block, I will give him a median B.

Talent rating: 20 (Physical impact: 5, Skill impact: 8, Feel for the Game: 7)

Advanced stats grade: B

20 * B (90%) = 18.0

T-8. SG Grayson Allen

What the scouts say: Allen is athletic but a little undersized for a 2 guard. His ball handling skills could hurt his ability to drive in the pros. For this I will rate him a 5 in the physical impact category. He is a strong outside shooting talent and passer for his position. I will rate him an 8 in skill impact. Grayson’s feel basketball IQ is above average. I give him a 7 in feel for the game.

Allen averages 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks (1.5 combined steals/blocks), 5.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists per 40 minutes. As a freshman he averaged 19.0 points on .58 TS% per 40 minutes. Based on the median of recent SGs I’d have given him a B for averaging 1.8 steals, 0.5 blocks (2.3 combined steals/blocks), 6.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 16.9 points, .57 TS% per 40. Allen is below average in steals and blocks, below average in rebounds, but above average in assists and scoring. Since in his weak categories he’s not doing too poorly, I’ll give him a median B.

Talent rating: 20 (Physical impact: 5, Skill impact: 8, Feel for the Game: 7)

Advanced stats grade: B

20 * B (90%) = 18.0

10. SG Patrick McCaw

McCaw is a good athlete with length of his position but a skinny body. His ball handling may hurt him from driving to the basket. I will rate him a 6 in physical impact based on this. He has an outside shooter and passing skills but his skill game is a work in progress. I will rate him a 6 based on this. His feel for the game is impressive as he has the vision to be a playmaker. I will give him a 7 in feel for the game.

McCaw is averaging 3.6 steals, 0.4 blocks (4.0 combined steals/blocks), 4.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists per 40 minutes and as a freshman averaged 13.1 points on .54 TS% per 40.  Based on the median of recent SGs I’d have given him a B for averaging 1.8 steals, 0.5 blocks (2.3 combined steals/blocks), 6.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 16.9 points, .57 TS% per 40. His steal and block rate is great and is well above average in assists, below average in rebounding and below average in scoring rate. This is about a median B profile.

Talent rating: 19 (Physical impact: 6, Skill impact: 6, Feel for the Game: 9)

Advanced stats grade: B

19 * B (90%) = 17.1

The rest of the top 60 is below. The lower the prospect is the less time I’ve likely spent on getting their rating right at this stage in the process, especially for ones with limited scouting reports:

T-11. PF Henry Ellenson: 17.0 (20 B/C)

T-11. SF Jaylen Brown: 17.0 (20 B/C)

T-13. PG Wade Baldwin: 16.8 (21 C)

T-13. SG Furkan Korkmaz: 16.8 (21 C)

T-13. PF Dragan Bender: 16.8 (21 C)

T-13. SG Buddy Hield: 16.8 (21 C)

T-17. SG Dwyane Bacon: 16.2 (18 B)

T-17. SG Donovan Mitchell: 16.2 (18 B)

T-17. C Ivica Zubac: 16.2 (18 B)

T-17. SG Malik Beasley: 16.2 (18 B)

T-17. C Shawn Long: 16.2 (18 B)

T-17. PF Pascal Siakam: 16.2 (18 B)

T-17. C Diamond Stone: 16.2 (18 B)

T-24. PG Monte Morris: 16.15 (19 B/C)

T-24. PG Kahlil Felder: 16.15 (19 B/C)

T-24. PF Dedric Lawson: 16.15 (17 A/B)

T-24. C A.J. Hammon: 16.15 (17 A/B)

T-24. PF Deyonta Davis: 16.15 (17 A/B)

T-24. PF Brice Johnson: 16.15 (17 A/B)

T-24. PG Gary Payton II: 16.15 (17 A/B)

T-24. C Kennedy Meeks: 16.15 (17 A/B)

T-32. PF Ivan Rabb: 16.0 (20 C)

T-32. C Stephen Zimmerman: 16.0 (20 C)

T-32. C Amida Brimah: 16.0 (20 C)

T-32. C Jonathan Jeanne: 16.0 (20 C)

T-32. SG Jamal Murray: 16.0 (20 C)

T-32. SG Caris LaVert: 16.0 (20 C)

T-38. PF Tyler Lydon: 15.3 (18 B/C)

T-38. PG Demetrius Jackson: 15.3 (18 B/C)

T-38. C Cheick Diallo: 15.3 (17 B)

T-38. PF Marquese Chriss: 15.3 (17 B)

T-38. C Thomas Bryant: 15.3 (17 B)

T-38. C Jakob Poetl: 15.3 (17 B)

44. PF Skal Labissiere: 15 (20 C/D)

45. SG Timothe Luwawu: 14.45 (17 B/C)

T-46. PF Carlton Bragg: 14.4 (18 C)

T-46. PG Isaiah Briscoe: 14.4 (18 C)

T-46. SG Malik Newman: 14.4 (18 C)

T-46. PF Petr Cornelie: 14.4 (18 C)

T-46. SG Alonzo Trier: 14.4 (18 C)

51. PF Nigel Hayes: 14.25 (19 C/D)

52. SF Malik Pope: 14.0 (20 D)

T-53. C Isaac Haas: 13.6 (17 C)

T-53. PF Paul Zipser: 13.6 (17 C)

T-53: C Damian Jones: 13.6 (17 C)

T-53. SF Justin Jackson: 13.6 (17 C)

T-53. C Chinanu Onuaku: 13.6 (16 B/C)

T-53. PG Fred VanVleet: 13.6 (17 B)

T-59: PG Aaron Holiday: 13.5 (18 B/C)

T-59. SF Deandre Bembry: 13.5 (18 C/D)

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Written by jr.

January 19, 2016 at 10:03 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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