A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

2016 draft by expected value

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Using this Basketball-reference.com chart of expected win shares by pick, I compared what teams got compared to the expected value of their draft position. For example using the BBR chart, the 15th pick is expected to have 26.0 Win Shares. If the player picked there was 5th on my big board, since the 5th pick has expected 46.6 Win Shares, the pick would have been rated +20.6. I did this for all a team’s picks to get a net value. Players who are unranked on my board are given a 0 in expected Win Shares value. (A minor quibble, since pick 60 has expected -0.1, I changed that to 0). Undrafted free agent signings are not included as part of the team’s haul.


1. Houston Rockets: +71.7

2. Brooklyn Nets: +33.5

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: +17.3

4. Los Angeles Clippers: +13.4

5. Memphis Grizzlies: +11.1

The Rockets were the obvious winner using my model, as with two 2nd round picks they took the 5th (Chinanu Onuaku) and 7th (Zhou Qi) ranked players. This doesn’t even include how they went on to sign the 35th (Gary Payton II) after he got undrafted. The Rockets got possibly the two best defensive big prospects in the class and the best defensive guard in college last year. With Clint Capela their frontcourt could be block city. The Nets were big winners after starting with no higher than the 55th pick, grabbing who my model rated as the 3rd best prospect in Isaiah Whitehead who’s creation ability could make him an all-star. While I’m not enamoured with the LeVert pick even before considering health his shooting makes him draftable. The Timberwolves took a top 2 rated prospect in Dunn 5th which represents a key leap in value. Dunn has a chance to be Towns’ real 2nd star and the two could be a perfect fit to combat the Warriors stranglehold on the West. Dunn could be a top defensive guard in the league and Curry’s personal Freddie Krueger, while Towns has the mobility to step out against Draymond but size to push him down low. The Clippers got one of the most dominant players in college in Brice Johnson who’s athleticism could help his scoring and rebounding translate. David Michineau looks like the worst prospect drafted to me with only a 12 PER at 22 in the French Pro A, but Diamond Stone has size and scored and blocked well enough in college to be worth his pick. They could finally add the big men depth the Clippers have needed for years. The Grizzlies got a top 5 rated prospect in Wade Baldwin who’s two way potential could make him a star in the Grindhouse although the rest of their draft including Deyonta Davis and Rade Zagorac with picks like Onuaku, Zhou, Patrick McCaw available was a missed opportunity.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers: +7.6

7. Dallas Mavericks: +5.7

8. Golden State Warriors: +4.5

I’m baffled that a relatively young player with McCaw’s athleticism, length, defensive hands, shooting and handling potential went as low as he did. The Warriors picked a player I didn’t have in my top 60 in Damian Jones 30th to hurt their value, but their overall night was better than this score says as they went on to sign a top 30 ranked player in Robert Carter and invite another in Thomas Walkup to summer league. The Cavaliers and Mavericks did well for themselves taking two of the most productive players in college last year in Kay Felder and A.J. Hammons. The Mavs also signed Jameel Warney to summer league who rated top 30.

T-9. Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Washington Wizards: N/A

13. Indiana Pacers: -3.4

14. Utah Jazz: -4.2

15. Portland Trail Blazers: -4.5

16. Chicago Bulls: -4.6

17. Orlando Magic: -7.1

18. San Antonio Spurs: -8.7

19. Los Angeles Lakers: -16.5

20. Oklahoma City Thunder: -17.4

21. Atlanta Hawks: -19.5

22. Philadelphia 76ers: -20.4

23. Detroit Pistons: -21.0

24. Toronto Raptors: -21.9

25. Milwaukee Bucks: -23.3

The 76ers are winners in reality just by getting Simmons though rate as having missed an opportunity with two 20s picks as Luwawu’s age and production in the Adriatic makes him rate as late 2nd round caliber, while Korkmaz was a respectable high variance pick in the 20s. The Lakers took the 13th rated player on my board in Ingram 2nd, but the 12th rated player in Zubac 32nd. While two starting talents is nothing to lift your nose at,  the expected value of the 2nd pick is still high for them to come out below average. The Raptors came out a little disappointing for their potential here, though Poeltl and Siakam were both great players in college and Siakam would have rated higher if not for being conservative with rankings for such weak conference competition players such as him, Walkup and Warney. In addition to a questionable Thon Maker pick, I didn’t love how the Bucks started with 36 and 38 and ended up with Malcolm Brogdon at one and sold the other, when players like Onuaku, McCaw, Zhou were available for them. While they didn’t make a pick the Knicks signed Ron Baker who rated 14th on my big board and has a chance to be a great 3 and D role player and the Wizards signed Daniel Ochefu who rated 18th and has a chance to be a solid C on both ends.

26. Sacramento Kings: -30.2

27. New Orleans Pelicans: -33.9

28. Boston Celtics: -41.8

29. Denver Nuggets: -44.4

30. Phoenix Suns: -53.3

The Suns had a tough night especially considering they gave up a 1st and Bogdon Bogdanovic to move up from 13 to 8. The history of project bigs is littered with bones and dried tears and the Suns went all in on the concept with Bender and Chriss and took a PG who could struggle on defense or creating shots in Ulis in the 30s. Their trade partner the Kings made a reasonable pick in Papagiannis in the lotto but used their late 1sts on two projects in Malachi and Skal both of who rated out of my top 60. I will say it wouldn’t shock me if Malachi had Nick Young’s career just based on the “eye test” perspective of agreeing that he does do unique creating his own shot things. A better prospect than either may be their undrafted signing Derrick Jones, Jr. who rated fringe top 30 on my board for his freakish athleticism, youth and productivity. The Pelicans potentially fell into the trap of taking a “safe” pick in Buddy Hield in the top 10, except the old, non-analytically friendly prospects who get called safe, sometimes are the busts. Diallo would’ve have been a respectable pick with one of their two 2nds, but doesn’t rate worth using them both to move up for. The Celtics draft is all over the place by getting one of the best international prospects in the draft in Ante Zizic, but taking a project in Jaylen Brown with the highly valuable 3rd pick rates as one of the worst picks in the draft, and Guerschon Yabusele for interesting tools didn’t quite have his production match up. I didn’t love their 2nd round with two old, ok players in Demetrius Jackson and Ben Bentil, and moving both 31 and 35 for a future pick when there were nice players there. The Nuggets got a lot of shooting skill in Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley, Juan Henangomez, Petr Cornelie, but that’s all those players represent, as that group severely lacks defense, or versatility in other offensive areas beyond 3s. Of the group Hernangomez rates as the most reasonable pick based on his production in the ACB.

Written by jr.

June 25, 2016 at 12:59 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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