A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

Early 2017 NBA Draft top 10 prospects

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This is what my model is saying about the 2017 class right now. I mostly kept it to projected 1st rounders and others I thought might perform well in it, so I may have missed a numbers friendly sleeper or two that I’ll pick up later in the year.

  1. PG Markelle Fultz (model rating: 21.24)
  2. PG Lonzo Ball (21.65)
  3. SF Dedric Lawson (21.6)

Since it’s effectively a tie in my model I won’t stick to it to the letter. I rated Lawson 3rd because he has athletic concerns leading him to be nowhere to be seen on conventional scout draft boards. With that said he has the highest BPM of the three which is not something directly in my model, but a good sign. While Fultz and Ball is a toss-up, I side against Ball because he thrives in transition and has an unorthadox jumpshot both of which could have a more difficult time translating to the next level than Fultz’s NBA made game.

  1. PG Dennis Smith, Jr. (19.89)
  2. SF Jonathan Isaac (19.81)
  3. PF T.J. Leaf (19.4)

I don’t have a problem with someone calling Smith the best prospect in the class, my model only measures athleticism if it shows up in the numbers so it could be underestimating his advantage in that area. He also projects as the best shooter of him, Fultz and Ball which is a potent combination with his physical tools but for now his overall productivity still trails the other two. Isaac rates as a better prospect than Brandon Ingram was last year by projecting as a stronger defender and shooter and Leaf is a great offensive freshman with his scoring, passing, shooting.

  1. PG Jawun Evans (18.06)
  2. C Robert Williams (17.55)
  3. SF Jayson Tatum (16.93)
  4. C Anzejs Pasceniks (Intl.)

Evans would have rated top 5 on my board last year if he came as a great combination of athleticism, shooting and passing for a PG and players like Isaiah Thomas and Kemba Walker have shown you can be undersized and great on offense at the position. Williams is a great shotblocking big with a solid FT% and shooting potential. Tatum has physical tools and shooting potential and is having a solid rookie campaign deserving of a lotto pick. The last spot goes to my highest rated international in Anzejs Pasceniks who is a mobile 7 footer with some shooting potential who impressively leads his ACB team in PER.

Overrated candidates:

SG Malik Monk (15.84): Monk is a crazy scorer but his productivity is below average everywhere else and models like mine are built to be bearish on NCAA scoring as a predictor as bullish on doing everything else. With that said, when a player is scoring 30 points per 40 minutes on .63 TS% as an 18 year old and projects as the best shooter in the class, it’s not like he should be counted out either and he’s not that far off from top ten in the model.

SF Josh Jackson (13.0): He puts up some fantastic numbers like his steals, blocks, assists, rebounds but the thing that really hurts him is the shooting projection where is below the Mendoza line of sorts. It’s very difficult to be Elfrid Payton or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the NBA right now. With that said he probably still has star potential. But I can’t put him in my top 10 when my model has him not even close.

PF Harry Giles (9.5): While it’s early and he’s coming back from injury so far his numbers are as bust-like as it gets

PG Frank Ntilikina (Intl.): My M.O. with international prospects is numbers first. I generally look for players who are the most productive on their international teams. Frank has great physical tools but he ranks last on his French Pro A team in PER. I wouldn’t touch him in the 1st round.

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Written by jr.

January 11, 2017 at 2:57 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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