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Redrafting the 2016 NBA draft class

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On the Dunc’d On podcast, RealGM’s Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux redrafted the top 10 of the 2016 draft. This inspired me to do my own list. Like them, I used a combination of the rookies play so far combined with my pre-draft analysis.

1. PF Ben Simmons (Original rank: 1)

While his lack of play so far and health makes him not a sure thing, he remains the most talented player in the class. The heart of Simmons upside to me is that he had a generational season in college for a freshman PF in two areas, assists and getting to the free throw line. As far as I’m concerned he has the upside to one day be the best player at his position at passing and getting to the line, and that alone makes him worth it.

2. C Ante Zizic (Original rank: 6)

Zizic rated top 6 on my original list for his statistical production in the Adriatic League, and he’s followed it up with an even more impressive season as he now plays 24 minutes per game for a Euroleague team and leads them in PER. His productivity at a competition level much closer to the NBA than the NCAA is makes him a safe bet as you can ask for to be a good future pro. While his strengths are as a rebounder and finisher right now, as an athletic 7 footer who just turned 20 a few months ago with apparent A level intangibles, his upside doesn’t necessarily need to be capped, and it’s not like anyone else makes a good case for 2nd anyways.

3. C Chinanu Onuaku (Original rank: 5)

Onuaku has played the entirety of this season in the D League for the Rockets, where he’s lived up to his college strengths by being one of the best rebounders in the league, an good passer for his role, a solid defender and has flashed midrange potential. He turned 20 last November. Onuaku won’t be a 20 point a game scorer in the NBA but his potential as a defender, rebounder, passer and finisher is perfect for the modern guard dominated game. Numbers cruncher Andrew Johnson rates him well:

4. PG Kris Dunn (Original rank: 2)

Despite having one of the most atrocious scoring seasons imaginable for a rookie, it’s worth noting the rest of his game outside of scoring has actually been excellent by rookie standards. For his class he ranks 1st in Stl%, 5th in Blk % despite being a guard, and 2nd in Ast %. The best defensive season for their position for 2016 draft rookies is probably either Dunn or Pascal Siakam, and Dunn appears to rate only behind Brogdon as a passer. For this reason his BPM is surprisingly OK, at 7th highest for above 500 minutes and 3rd for players above 1,000 minutes, that includes being above Jamal Murray, Ivica Zubac, Buddy Hield, Jaylen Brown, Dragan Bender, Brandon Ingram. It doesn’t mean his scoring and age isn’t a major red flag, but being behind the rest of the pack in scoring, but ahead of the pack as defender and passer isn’t the end of the world.

5. C Ivica Zubac (Original rank: 12)

Zubac has shown one of the best scoring skillsets in his class. While a big post center isn’t the best fit for the modern game anymore, there’s still a place for productive ones and Zubac isn’t a write-off yet on defense or as a floor spacer. His age is favorable, as he turns 20 in a few days. 

6. SF/PF Juan Hernangomez (Original rank: 16)

Hernangomez now has a track record of producing well for his league, first in the ACB and having one of the better rookie seasons through 600 minutes in the NBA. His game is heavily reliant on 3pt shooting right now which isn’t at a big sample size yet to say is for real, and I’m concerned whether he’ll have more dimensions to his game even if he is a great 3pt shooter, but it appears a fair bet he’ll be a good player.

7. PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon (Original rank: 50)

Brogdon has been a great passer and 3pt shooter for a rookie and is already a league average player, which by this draft’s standards would make him my rookie of the year pick. If he was 22 I’d be saying players like this can still end up turning into a star, but at 24 there isn’t a lot of data points to say whether he can still develop. The smart bet is probably his career value being around what Taj Gibson (a 24 year old rookie at the time) ended up giving the Bulls.

8. PG/SG Isaiah Whitehead (Original rank: 3)

Whitehead’s overall stats in categories like PER, WS/48, BPM are one of the worst in the league and it could be a mistake to predict anything but bust after seeing those. However he gets to the basket the most of rookie guards, is at 37% from 3 and 90% from the FT line in 2017 (33%/85% for the year) and has size for a guard, when added together that would seem the best case scenario is a guard who can drive, shoot and defend, and he probably would only need to do 2 to be good. His stats have improved in recent weeks while his assists have dropped, showing he may have been a SG miscast as a PG most of this year. I dropped him from my original ranking of 3, but I won’t put up off the map based on those signs.

9. SF Taurean Prince (Original rank: 9)

Prince’s overall stats for this season are pretty meh, but 34% from 3 with 87% from the FT line is encouraging for his future shooting potential and he has a solid steal rate. In college his volume scoring was underrated, so I won’t count him out as just a spot up shooter.

10. SG/SF Caris LeVert (Original rank: 47)

LeVert only trails Hernangomez in BPM for players with real minutes, he’s shown a solid ability to handle, pass and shooting potential for a wing. He is turning 23 this year but looks like he could grow into a highly versatile wing.

Honorable mention:

C Zhou Qi and PF Brice Johnson: Both in my original top 10  but Zhou Qi hasn’t taken a step forward in the CBA this year, Johnson’s back now makes him a health concern and is off to an OK start in a small sample size in the D League. Both just miss top 10.

PG/SG Jamal Murray and SG Buddy Hield: Both project to be excellent 3pt shooters, I haven’t seen enough in the rest of their game in either college or NBA to get them into the top 10.

SF Jaylen Brown: Has played well recently but skeptical he may be shooting over his head from 3 based on his college season and first half of his rookie season

C Jakob Poeltl and PF Pascal Siakam: Both have provided admirable hustle player minutes for the Raptors, but unclear if they’re skilled enough to have upside

PF Thon Maker, PF Skal Labissiere, PF Marquese Chriss: All have shown some things this year but were high risk coming into the year and I haven’t seen enough to be sure yet they still aren’t. PF Dragan Bender showed less than any of the 3, but looked like the best prospect of them coming into the year.

PG/SG Wade Baldwin: Ranked 4th in my original ratings but I am much lower on him now based on looking rawer than sushi and disappointing D League production that makes him look like a probable bust. He was never that great a player in college but his amazing length combined with frame and 3pt shooting for his position were quantifiable numbers that went into his rating, so this combination could have been misleading.

SF Brandon Ingram: He didn’t rank in my original top 10 so he’s certainly not going to after this rookie season. He’s very young and has impressive length and fluidity, but being an elite 3pt shooter like Durant was supposed to be the core of his game, which I predicted was much less of a guarantee than advertised because of a low FT% compared to his 3P% in college. He wasn’t a great slasher, defender or passer in college, so without the 3pt shooting being a lock anymore, the amount of things Ingram has shown he can do great vs his peers becomes a worrisomely small list.

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Written by jr.

March 14, 2017 at 4:31 pm

Posted in Uncategorized