A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

Posts Tagged ‘Chrysler

8 Thoughts from Super Bowl XLV

with 6 comments

1. Obviously, as I wrote before, I love what the Packers represent, so I’m quite happy with how this turned out.

2. This game clearly was a good of a case that you’ll ever see that turnovers are really, really important in football. And yet, the 3-0 advantage of the Packers here is clearly mostly luck. The Steelers and Packers had two of the top 4 turnover differentials in the league this year, and the larger of those two numbers was the Steelers’ +17, which puts them just slightly above +1 per game. The Packers, 4th in the league with a +0.625 TO edge per game, about quintupled their normal edge in this game, despite going up against an elite defensive team.

Bottom line, take the turnovers out of the game, the Steelers almost certainly win. And if you play this game in a series, I see no reason to assume that the Packers would generally have the turnover edge. Very, very lucky Packers indeed.

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