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Posts Tagged ‘DeMar DeRozan

The case for and against Toronto maxing out DeMar Derozan

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The struggles of DeMar Derozan has been an ongoing playoff storyline, scoring only 17.7 points on .395 TS% through 11 games after a career year in the regular season. The worry for Toronto is this isn’t just missing open shots. His unreliable 3 point shot has allowed teams to go under pick and rolls to prevent this driving game and leave him to take inefficient midrange jumpers.

Toronto’s price to keep Derozan will likely be a max contract no matter how he plays the rest of these playoffs. The Lakers have been itching to prove they are a marquee free agent destination and the new TV deal will afford many other teams the capspace to make a run at the 2 time all-star in his prime.

There’s arguments for and against Toronto paying Derozan:

Keep him

– Like the Raptors Derozan is not a finished product. His .338 3P% and 0.6 3pt makes per game were career highs and with his work ethic he could continue to improve his 3 point shooting to manageable levels in addition to clearing up other weaknesses. His teammate Kyle Lowry is proof players can continue to push their game to new heights after the age Derozan is now.

– Lowry has struggled to stay healthy by the playoffs the last two seasons in addition to a track record in Houston of getting banged up. Derozan taking the defensive pressure he does off Lowry could be important to keeping him healthy going forward.

– With the Nuggets Masai Ujiri resigned Nene to a hefty 5 year deal, then traded him to Washington half a season later. Even if the Raptors don’t love Derozan’s max contract, signing him and then seeing what trade offers are out there half a season or a year afterwards could be the best way to maximize value out of the situation.

– The regular season matters. Being the 2nd seed is just about the best thing the Raptors have going for them. It gave them home court and a beatable opponent in Indiana in Round 1 and home court against Miami in Round 2 instead of playing Cleveland. If Derozan helps them repeat as a top 2 seed next year this is worth it.

Let him go

– The Raptors offensive success is despite finishing 30th in Assist % on 2 point field goals this year, 9th on 3s. They have been a poor passing team throughout the Lowry and Derozan era. Letting Derozan go may be the best way to transition towards the ball and player movement teams needed to contend.

– The Raptors have young talent that could break out without him. Jonas Valanciunas is showing all the signs of an all-star in the East if you run the offense through him. Terrence Ross could take the next step especially playing SG full time. Norman Powell has shown flashes of brilliance and the Raptors have the 9th and 27th picks to add more talent. Add in DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph’s minutes at SG and the team would not be left to dry for wing talent.

– Including draft picks but not including Derozan or Biyombo, Toronto has about 73 million on the books next year. That’s not enough to sign a max player like Al Horford or Nic Batum but if a player of that level wanted to sign there, they would could be a cap clearing move away like trading Ross or Carroll. All the teams with capspace this summer makes it perfect conditions to move an existing salary if necessary. The best argument against resigning Derozan may be if the Raptors need the money for someone else.

Written by jr.

May 9, 2016 at 8:54 pm

Stats Tuesday – The future of Demar Derozan and the possessions game catching up to young players

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DeMar DeRozan of the Toronto Raptors {| class=...As a Raptors fan, I’ve been asking myself “What to do with a problem like Demar Derozan” Sound of Music style

By the old way of judging players, Derozan scoring 17.2 points and 16.7 points a game in the 2nd and 3rd seasons would seem evidence he’s a player to build around in a starting lineup. It’s not easy to get 16 point a game+ scorers.

Advanced stats say otherwise. A .530 TS% and .503 TS% the last two years and little other impact on the game but scoring, bring him to a PER of 14.4 and 12.8, the former below average and the latter awful.

The boogieman for Derozan’s career going forward is possessions. Using the equation of FGA+0.44*FTA+TOV to measure scoring possessions, he averaged 18.0 and 18.6 possessions a game. This is a lot. To use a comparison, last year Paul Pierce used 19.9, Joe Johnson used 18.8 last year, Danny Granger used 19.1. So Derozan’s 18.6 possessions a game last year is fairly close to star wings’.

The problem for Derozan is the only reason he’s getting these possessions at his current caliber of play is the poor quality of his team’s offensive options. He does not have the talent to be a top scoring option on an elite team, based on what he’s shown so far. The way we know this is the players who do have “top scoring option on a great team” talent, if given the keys on a bad team, will typically produce at a much higher volume than Derozan did last year. Granger in 2008-2009 averaged 25.8ppg, then 24.1ppg in 2009-2010. Joe Johnson averaged 25.0ppg in 2006-2007. By comparison’s Derozan’s 17.2 and 16.7ppg seasons are fairly meek, especially at a poor efficiency.

In basically any situation, a score first player is going to get less possessions on a talented team than on a poor one. This seems inherently obvious – The star offensive player has to carry the team with less help. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

September 25, 2012 at 1:16 pm

NBA Fan Q&A: Toronto Raptors

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From now on after a ranking of players on the NBA Franchise Power Rankings, I will post quotes from the fans – taken from RealGM.com, most of the time. With the Raptors ranking at #22 here,  I debute a roundup of their answers to 6 of my questions from fans of the team:

Q: Do you believe extending Bryan Colangelo was a good idea, and why?

J-Roc: No, GM’s are a dime a dozen and he blew his change here.

J Dilla: No. Handed out rich contracts to crappy players. Promoted and extended Jay Triano. Gave away Bosh for nothing when he could’ve had a young asset in Michael Beasley. Has a flawed vision of building an NBA basketball team.

pass first: Great decision. BC is the man. I like his track record despite what other people say.

witnessraps: Extending Bryan Colangelo was absolutely a good decision. The guy is a proven winner and has a great track record of drafting, and the 2012 draft is where we plan to make noise. People need to understand that things don’t always work out on the first try, he now has another chance to build this team into a contender and I like where we are right now.

Silk Wilkes: Yes. The options out there were limited and a 2-year contract gives him a short period of time to prove himself. It’s a now or never deal. However, if he fails and they extend him again I would be scratching my head.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

October 22, 2011 at 2:10 pm

NBA Franchise Power Rankings: #22 – Toronto Raptors

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Andrea Bargnani dunk Toronto Raptors Miami Heat

Image via Wikipedia

Previous rankings:

#30 - Charlotte Bobcats (+ introduction)
#29 - Phoenix Suns
#28 - Denver Nuggets
#27 - Detroit Pistons
#26 - Milwaukee Bucks
#25 - Philadelphia 76ers
#24 - Houston Rockets
#23 - Portland Trailblazers

#22- Toronto Raptors

Best assets – C Jonas Valanciunas (rookie, projects as legitimate starter to borderline all-star), 2012 1st, 2013 1st, C Andrea Bargnani (legitimate starter), SG DeMar DeRozan (young, projects as legitimate starter to borderline all-star), PF Ed Davis (young, projects as legitimate starter), PG Jerryd Bayless (young, projects as bench player to borderline starter), PF Amir Johnson (borderline starter), SF James Johnson (bench player), SG Sonny Weems (bench player)

Negative assets – SF Lina Kleiza (3 years, 13.8 million), PG Jose Calderon (2 years, 20.2 million)

Other chips: SG Leandro Barbosa (borderline starter, expiring)

Total Trade Value Ranking: #21 (Feb. 2011 ranking: #25)

Financial Grade: A-

Managerial Grade: C

Overall synopsis: The Raptors are making their way through the post Chris Bosh abyss. The problem with Bosh’s absence is of course, not simply that they lost him, but that they got almost literally nothing for him. Since a perenniel all-star is the most valuable thing you can have, that left a crater in their overall trade value and sent them years back.

Yet, the team has still accumulated a solid group of young players. Behind legitimate starter Andrea Bargnani and the advanced statistics friendly Amir Johnson, they have a number of players to starter to all-star potential in DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Ed Davis. Read the rest of this entry »