A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

Posts Tagged ‘Kemba Walker

Looking at the Bobcats’ coming improvement in 2013-2014

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The Bobcats have become the league’s punching back the last few years, with the all-time bad 7-59 season after the lockout followed by a still dreadful 21-61 last season. Over the last 3 seasons they’ve managed to put together a group of young prospects like Kemba Walker, Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller, but they are widely expected to be bad again, even after signing Al Jefferson to a huge contract.

I feel the Bobcats could make a large leap next year. Here’s why:

First, the Bobcats continued their long offensive incompetence by finishing 28th in the league with a 101.5 ORTG. Of the Bobcats’ roughly 8708 possessions (using FGA + .44*FTA + TOV), here is the distribution between the players:

 

Players over league average 105.9 ORTG (using Dean Oliver’s individual ORTG):

Gerald Henderson 1101 poss (12.64%) – 107 ORTG

Ramon Sessions 933 poss (10.71%) – 109 ORTG

Jeffrey Taylor 492 poss (5.65%) – 107 ORTG

Josh McRoberts 158 poss (1.81%) – 113 ORTG

 

Players under league average ORTG, but over the Bobcats’ 101.5 ORTG:

Kemba Walker 1607 poss (18.45%) – 105 ORTG

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 765 poss (8.78%) – 102 ORTG

Jeff Adrien 244 poss (2.80%) – 105 ORTG

Reggie Williams 160 poss (1.84%) – 102 ORTG

 

Players under the Bobcats’ 101.5 ORTG:

Ben Gordon 952 poss (10.93%) – 96 ORTG

Byron Mullens 681 poss (7.82%) – 94 ORTG

Bismack Biyombo 490 poss (5.63%) – 98 ORTG

Brendan Haywood 295 poss (3.39%) – 95 ORTG

Hakim Warrick 230 poss (2.64%) – 94 ORTG

Jannero Pargo 174 poss (2.0%) – 96 ORTG

Tyrus Thomas 167 poss (1.92%) – 88 ORTG

Desagana Diop 35 poss (0.42%) – 74 ORTG

Cory Higgins 20 poss (0.23%) – 90 ORTG

It’s easy to see what an offensive disaster the Bobcats frontcourt was. Mullens, Biyombo, Haywood, Warrick, Thomas and Diop combined for just under 22% of the possessions at a disastrous efficiency.

Al Jefferson used about 1436 possessions at 109 ORTG last year, above league average and way above the Bobcats’ average last year. Furthermore McRoberts who was added late last season, had great efficiency in a small sample size. Cody Zeller was one of the most efficient players in the NCAA last year, making it reasonable to expect at least average ORTG next year. The Bobcats also signed Anthony Tolliver who had a 102 ORTG last year on 274 possessions. Overall, the Bobcats should replace many inefficient possessions in the frontcourt with average or better ones. Bismack Biyombo will likely still be in the rotation among inefficient players, but is young and could hypothetically improve.

Other than the bigs, Ben Gordon’s combination of volume and inefficiency also killed the Bobcats. It’s unclear how much Gordon will play this year, but the Bobcats would be wise to sit him down and replace his minutes with Jeffrey Taylor, who’s both more productive on both ends and a young player worth developing. The Bobcats are also not done filling their roster and could sign more wing depth to take Gordon’s minutes.

Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist improving their slightly below average efficiency is also plausible, if they improve their shooting and general experience.

Overall, a lot is pointing towards the Bobcats offense getting a lot better this year, if not jumping all the way to league average.

What about defense? The Bobcats finished a dreadful 30th in DRTG last year. Certainly Al Jefferson is not known as a defensive ace and nor should rookie Cody Zeller or Josh McRoberts. However, it’s hard to expect they’d get any worse defensively in the frontcourt, with both their 30th DRTG and Byron Mullens taking so many minutes up front last year. Biyombo has the physical tools to be a good defender, thus if he doesn’t start making an impact on that end this season to compliment Jefferson, he may as well pack his bags for another league early.

More important defensively is the perimeter. Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have great athleticism and motors, which should presumably lead to them to pressuring the other team defensively. Jeffrey Taylor also has defensive potential due to his positional intelligence. The Bobcats perimeter is built to be their defensive core and hypothetically, are a great defensive fit beside Jefferson and Zeller up front. Defense is also an area where making Gordon a DNP player or buying him out would help. It’s also possible that Mike Dunlap was out of his element as a coach in the NBA and is responsible for their dreadful defense last year, while Steve Clifford could provide an improvement. As a whole, amount of perimeter athletes the Bobcats have drafted lately could pan out on the defensive end this season. They may not be a great defensive team, but production closer to average next year shouldn’t be a shock.

Simply replacing all the inefficient offensive players with average players on that end, could be enough to push the Bobcats towards 30 wins. When adding in the potential for players like Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist and Biyombo taking their careers to another level, or a dramatic turnaround in team defense, the Bobcats could really make a rapid turnaround. My guess is that the Bobcats are closer to the 10th pick in the draft than 1st next year and that they have a puncher’s chance at challenging the playoffs. The most favorable comparison for the Bobcats would be the 2009-2010 Grizzlies, who improved to 40-42 after 24-58 the season before and a string of losing seasons before that. That Grizzlies improvement was spurned on by the addition of Zach Randolph and development of players like Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, Jr. improving the offense, while Lionel Hollins’ system and internal development lead to a defensive improvement. The Grizzlies didn’t make the playoffs that year, but they surprised by becoming respectable, foreshadowing great success in following seasons.

Written by jr.

August 13, 2013 at 11:39 am

Predictions, Predictions, Predictions everywhere: 2011-2012 NBA Awards Picks

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Derrick Rose

Derrick Rose's position as the lone superstar on a league best team gives him an MVP race advantage (Image via Wikipedia)

Who’s winning the major awards in this shortened NBA season?

Here’s my picks:

Sixth Man of the Year: James Harden. Not an original pick at all but it’s the obvious choice. The Thunder will likely have one of the best records which together with making a jump as a player, will give Harden the profile and narrative to win the awards. Harden could even make the all-star team this year. When a team jumps out to the best record in their conference, Harden getting in like Jameer Nelson did the year the Magic were the league’s best story is reasonable.

Coach of the Year: George Karl. The Coach of the Year award has morphed into the “Coach of the most surprising team” award lately, so if the Nuggets jump out to a top 4 record in the Western Conference Karl will fit that metric. He’s also a true veteran coach and has coached succesful teams for quite some time – but has never won coach of the year. This is another reason for them to finally give him one.

Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving. I could see Irving, Jimmer Fredette, Kemba Walker, Brandon Knight and Ricky Rubio all have similarly impressive rookie seasons statistically. The difference in Irving’s case is I expect the Cavaliers to be a better than than all of those other players’. Which may be a result of having a good frontcourt and good 3pt shooting, but Irving’s presence will get a lot of credit for it if they surprise. Read the rest of this entry »

NBA franchise power rankings: #30 – Charlotte Bobcats

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Current primary logo (2008–present)

Image via Wikipedia

To fill some of the time during this long lockout, I’m going to rank the 30 NBA franchises’ positions in the league over the next few months. What I mean by position is this: I personally feel the NBA and essentially all professional sports, works like a ladder. You have your bottom 10 teams who are far away from their goals, you have your middle 10 in a better spot than the bottom ones but in a worse one than the top teams, and you have your top 5 and 10 teams, the teams everyone wants to be. The goal is to move up the ladder. Good decisions, good drafts and development, good signings move you up the ladder past the teams who make bad decisions or just get old. I believe every team has a relative position on the ladder.

Last February I introduced the “Trade Value Power Rankings”, hypothesizing that the simplest way to quick glance a team’s position in the league is to look at the added up trade value of their assets – total trade value covers age of players, salary, injury history, how they interact with teammates, future draft picks, and so on. Superstars and all-stars have the most value, high draft picks have a lot, legitimate starters have good value, borderline starters have a little value, bench players have negligible value and bad contracts have negative value. Young players have more value than old players, but only to an extent – A superstar old player likely still have more value than merely good young player. Good teammates have more value than bad teammates, but likewise to an extent – star headcases usually have more value than squeaky clean bench players.

In this, I list total trade value, but I also take into account managerial history, financial situation, their estimated draft pick next year and my personal feelings on how teams cores are set to fit together. Here’s the first entry:

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Written by jr.

July 12, 2011 at 10:49 pm

2011 NBA Mock Draft, Version 1

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I’m going to be writing a handful of pieces about the 2011 draft over the next month. My short prognosis of it is its an Ichiro Suziki draft, not a Mark McGuire one: Don’t expect any home runs, but it should be a very nice draft to get a single or double. In other words, no superstars but lots of players fitting in the solid starter to solid bench player category.

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Written by jr.

May 22, 2011 at 5:41 pm