A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

Posts Tagged ‘Mock

Final Mock Draft (June 28th, 2012)

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A final mock draft. I have no sources, these are just guesses. To mix it up a bit, I have included a confidence % beside each pick, showing how strongly I feel the team would make this pick. I have also included the “alternative pick”, showing who I’d have 2nd on their board at that pick.

1. New Orleans Hornets – PF Anthony Davis: A lock to go 1st, no use discussing it. Confidence: 100%. Alternate pick: N/A

2. Charlotte Bobcats – PF Thomas Robinson: Charlotte seems a candidate to move down to 4 with Cleveland, but Robinson seemingly is their target either way. Confidence level: 75%. Alternate pick: SF Harrison Barnes

3. Washington Wizards – SG Bradley Beal: Washington’s trade for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza seems to foreshadow their target is Beal, to fill their need for shooting and scoring at the 2. Confidence level: 90%. Alternate pick: SF Harrison Barnes

4. Cleveland Cavaliers – SG Dion Waiters: Last year Cleveland’s pick of Tristan Thompson, a) Was kept almost a perfect secret until the day of the draft, and b) Apparently made on statistical metrics. The stats love Waiters and hate Harrison Barnes, the consensus best player available here. I have Cleveland matching the conditions of the Thompson pick by taking Waiters. Confidence level: 50%. Alternate pick: SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

5. Sacramento Kings – C Andre Drummond: The heavy word is that Sacramento will be trading this pick to Houston if Robinson isn’t available here and that the Rockets target is seemingly Drummond. Confidence level: 75%. Alternate pick: SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

June 28, 2012 at 2:28 pm

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2012 NBA Mock Draft (Top 60, with explanations) – June 15th, 2012

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This is my 2nd 2012 NBA Mock draft and first including the 2nd round. I will do a 3rd one before the draft if my predictions greatly change. This list is based purely on speculation and guesses based on the information out there on teams and their history.

1. New Orleans Hornets – PF Anthony Davis: As big a lock to 1st overall as you can get. With Gordon, Davis and the most underrated coach in the league Monty Williams, the Hornets have the pieces to contend in a few years.

2. Charlotte Bobcats – SG Jeremy Lamb: I’m going with my gut that either Charlotte or Cleveland is in love with Jeremy Lamb’s effortless scoring talent. Lamb’s dynamic shot creation and spacing at the 2 guard spot is exactly what the Bobcats need.

3. Washington Wizards – SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: The Wizards have been remodeling their roster lately to one with more consistent character and less enigmas. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist adds to a potentially elite defensive core in the future, while fitting with the Wizards’ history of taking athletic players.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers – PF/C Meyers Leonard: With a star PG in Kyrie Irving, Leonard potentially gives the Cavaliers a 2nd huge piece as a C who can score in the post and block shots – completing the long term frontcourt beside PF Tristan Thompson and his rebounding/toughness.

5. Sacramento Kings – PF Thomas Robinson: The Kings need a player who’s impact doesn’t rely on shots, with his athleticism and rebounding and strength Robinson fits this and is an ideal match at PF beside Demarcus Cousins at C. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

June 15, 2012 at 5:12 pm

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My 2012 NBA Draft Big Board – Ranking the top 30 (March 2012)

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This is my preliminary ranking of the top 30 prospects in the 2012 draft. I will repost a list in June before the draft.

My method is based on evaluating players’ skillsets. A players’ statistics can help illuminate these skillsets, but producing in the NCAA is not a necessity, nor does it guarantee success in the NBA. I see impressive statistics matching an impressive prospects as coorelation, rather than causing that ranking.

I have also included statistical and stylistic comparisons for each player in the NBA. The stylistic comparison may be above or below that player’s production in the NBA, it’s meant more to simply *how* they will play and look in the NBA. The statistical comparison is under the assumption of the opportunity to play starting caliber (30-36) minutes, thus judging the player and not their situation.

1. PF Anthony Davis – The clearcut #1. Can be the best defensive big man in the league, and the value of that cannot be understated when you look at the history of championship teams in the NBA. Offensively he is coming along with good touch, instincts and a ballhandling and shooting perimeter game that is coming along. Finally, has a perfect humble character – the type you build a franchise around culturally. He may put up 18 points, 11 rebounds and 3.5 blocks a game one day, resembling Miami usage Chris Bosh offensively and Tim Duncan defensively. Read the rest of this entry »

Of Intangibles vs Talent: Jonas Valanciunas vs Donatas Motiejunas in the 2011 NBA Draft

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Physical map of Lithuania. Click on the image ...

Who will be the 2011 NBA Draft's best C from Lithuania? (Image via Wikipedia)

In the 2011 draft there is really only one complete prospect: PG Kyrie Irving. The rest of the prospects split into two general groups: Talented offensive players with positional, defense, or effort level question marks, and more limited offensive players who are A grade in effort and defensive willingness.

Two Lithuanian Cs in the top 20 draw my eye in particular representing these two groups – and the talent vs intangibles debate in the draft in general: Jonas Valanciunas and Donatas Motiejunas.

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2011 NBA Mock Draft, Version 1

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I’m going to be writing a handful of pieces about the 2011 draft over the next month. My short prognosis of it is its an Ichiro Suziki draft, not a Mark McGuire one: Don’t expect any home runs, but it should be a very nice draft to get a single or double. In other words, no superstars but lots of players fitting in the solid starter to solid bench player category.

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Written by jr.

May 22, 2011 at 5:41 pm