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My 2013 NBA mock draft (June 2013)

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Here is my mock draft for fun:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers – PF Nerlens Noel: Ignore the Alex Len talk because Cleveland is an advanced metrics first drafting team, which likely rules Len out for his all time poor steal rate, whereas Noel and Porter are tops for nearly all stat-guys. I’m convinced the Cavaliers don’t take Len just like was convinced they’d pass on Harrison Barnes last year. This impassioned case for Noel is relevant because he ranked Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters 2nd in their draft years. With the Cavs having options at SF like Paul Pierce and Shawn Marion as well, I’ll lean narrowly towards them taking Noel in hopes of a long term star.

2. Orlando Magic – SG Victor Oladipo: I’m not sure what to make of the Eric Bledsoe rumors since I thought Rob Hennigan’s tell was feel for the game heavy players, which isn’t Bledsoe’s strength. Nevertheless Oladipo is a fit for the Magic whether my belief they specifically target smooth feel friendly players, is true or not. Oladipo gives them all-star upside and character at the 2 guard spot.

3. Washington Wizards – SF Otto Porter: Washington seems invested in making the playoffs next year. Porter fills a hole as starting SF immediately, in between Wall, Beal, Nene and Okafor. He provides a long term complimentary fit to their backcourt.

4. Charlotte Bobcats – PF Anthony Bennett: A fit for the Bobcats because of his high offensive upside, something desperately needed in Charlotte.

5. Phoenix Suns – PG Trey Burke: Although the Suns may need to move some pieces with Goran Dragic and Kendall Marshall on the team, Burke fits Ryan McDonaugh’s advanced stats history and gives them a new face of the franchise and offensive centerpoint, something they need.

6. New Orleans Pelicans – C Alex Len: Hard to see Len falling past here, giving Anthony Davis a long term center partner to help him out on both ends.

7. Sacramento Kings – SG Ben McLemore: I have no idea where the Kings are going, but McLemore is the type of off ball, complimentary scorer they’ve lacked lately. He’s the anti-Tyreke Evans.

8. Detroit Pistons – SF Sergey Karasev: Karasev fills a need for Detroit, giving them a shooter and creator on the wings for their big heavy lineup.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves – PG/SG C.J. McCollum: The Timberwolves are likely looking to fill a need for shooting. McCollum makes a nice fit beside Rubio at the 2, potentially switching defensive assignments.

10. Portland Trailblazers – PF/C Cody Zeller: Zeller gives the Blazers big man depth at PF/C, potential important if they’re looking at a Lamarcus Aldridge trade as a possibility soon

11. Philadelphia 76ers – C Steven Adams: Adams gives the 76ers either a starting C replacement for Andrew Bynum, or insurance for his health

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto) – SF Giannis Antetokounmpo: I’ve had a feeling for a while Oklahoma City will go international stash to save salary and luxury tax. They can hope to bring Giannis over in a few years as a Toni Kukoc equivalent.

13. Dallas Mavericks – PG Dennis Schroeder: The Mavericks also appear to lean international stash for cap reasons. Schroeder fits that bill and is a high upside prospect at a needed position.

14. Utah Jazz – PF Kelly Olynyk: Olynyk’s spacing and feel, makes him a nice long term fit beside the bulking post players Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors

15. Milwaukee Bucks – PG Michael Carter-Williams: Carter-Williams has serious top 8 pick potential in this draft, so if he falls this far the Bucks may like adding him as a Brandon Jennings replacement at PG

16. Boston Celtics – SG/SF Jamaal Franklin: Franklin’s physical talents and instincts, gives the Celtics some upside as they look towards a new era

17. Atlanta Hawks – SF Shabazz Muhammad: The Hawks don’t have a lot going on at the wings right now, Shabazz gives them a scorer to fill minutes

18. Atlanta Hawks – C Gorgui Dieng: If they go wing with one pick, taking a center who can finally move Horford to PF, seems natural with the other one.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers – SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Caldwell-Pope is another advanced metrics favorite, fitting Cleveland and giving them depth on the wings

20. Chicago Bulls – C Jeff Withey: This has felt the natural landing spot for Withey for some time, filling the Omer Asik role behind Joakim Noah

21. Utah Jazz – PG Erick Green: Green gives the Jazz a potential starting PG, with shooting skill and feel.

22. Brooklyn Nets – C Mason Plumlee: The Nets feel like a team looking for an older college player under the guise of “NBA ready”, Plumlee filling a role as energy rebounder for them

23. Indiana Pacers – SG/SF Tony Snell: A contending team like Indiana can always use another shooter and floor spacer with defensive potential

24. New York Knicks – PF/C Lucas Nogueira: Nogueira provides some needed athletic depth at a big man spot.

25. Los Angeles Clippers – SG/SF Reggie Bullock: Like the Pacers’ Snell pick, the Clippers make this pick to find shooting and spacing who can play

26. Minnesota Timberwolves – C Rudy Gobert: If drafting wing early, Gobert gives them a backup C which is another need

27. Denver Nuggets – PF C.J. Leslie: Leslie’s athleticism fits Denver’s typical high paced style of play, well.

28. San Antonio Spurs – C Mike Muscala: Muscala’s elite feel for the game fits the Spurs’ history well. A player whom nobody will be surprised if he’s a steal, but will somehow fall this far anyways, which is a typical draft night for the Spurs

29. Oklahoma City Thunder – C Bojan Dubjlevic: Another international stash for the Thunder, they could use Bojan’s floor spacing in a few years.

30. Phoenix Suns (from Miami Heat) – PF Tony Mitchell: After drafting wing early, the Suns look for a previously highly touted SF/PF with athleticism in Mitchell

31. Cleveland Cavaliers – C Colton Iverson: Cleveland hopes to get a rotation backup C out of the big, reliable Iverson

32. Oklahoma City Thunder – SG/SG Glen Rice, Jr.: Rice, Jr.’s experience in the D League and with the longer 3 point line, may give him a chance at playing this year for the Thunder

33. Cleveland Cavaliers – PG Lorenzo Brown: Trying to find PG depth behind Kyrie Irving who has been injury prone, is a respectable idea

34. Houston Rockets – PF/C Ryan Kelly: Houston is no stranger to 3 point shooting bigs, the spacing fitting their advanced metrics heavy system

35. Philadelphia 76ers – SG Allen Crabbe: Another team looking for a shooter to shore up their wings

36. Sacramento Kings – SG Tim Hardaway, Jr.: Hardaway is the type of reliable wing who doesn’t need a lot of shots, that the Kings have lacked lately

37. Detroit Pistons – PG Ray McCallum: Drafting a PG here is a fit for Detroit, grabbing a local prospect is perfect for them

38. Washington Wizards – PG Shane Larkin: Larkin is a nice speedy compliment behind John Wall

39. Portland Trailblazers – PF Jackie Carmichael: Carmichael adds another tough depth prospect to Portland’s frontcourt

40. Portland Trailblazers – PG Isaiah Canaan: Trying to get a backup PG behind Damian Lillard, why not?

41. Memphis Grizzlies – PF Andre Roberson: Roberson is an advanced stats favorite, fits the John Hollinger Grizzlies era

42. Philadelphia 76ers – SG Ricardo Ledo: Ledo has some buzz, though I expect he’d go higher if not for character concerns

43. Milwaukee Bucks – SF Solomon Hill: The Bucks are the greatest 2nd round drafting team by far, so I’ll give them a pick I’d call a steal at this range.

44. Dallas Mavericks – SG Archie Goodwin: Dallas tries an upside move, taking the hype athletic Goodwin PG Pierre Jackson

45. Portland Trailblazers – PF Kenny Kadji: After drafting guads with the last 2 seconds, a big pick seems fair

46. Utah Jazz – SG Alex Abrines: The Jazz have had a solid history with high IQ international players

47. Atlanta Hawks – PF Grant Jerrett: Jerrett has a solid chance of making it long term in the NBA if he can hit 3s, even if he does little else

48. Los Angeles Lakers – PG Myck Kabongo: The Lakers could use a young point guard with upside

49. Chicago Bulls – PF Erik Murphy The Bulls have had a need for a 3pt shooting PF for years

50. Atlanta Hawks – C Trevor Mbakwe: Mbakwe’s athleticism and energy makes him a solid bet to stick off the bench

51. Orlando Magic – PF Brandon Davies: Davies has one of the best feel for the games in the draft, making him an ideal Magic fit

52. Minnesota Timberwolves – SF James Ennis: Another shooter for the Timberwolves

53. Indiana Pacers – PG Nate Wolters: A young PG is a nice fit for the Pacers, Wolters great value this low

54. Washington Wizards – PF Livio Jean-Charles: I expect the Wizards to go Euro stash with this pick if they keep it

55. Memphis Grizzlies – PG Pierre Jackson: Drafting a PG with a solid chance at playing backup in the league for a long time, is a solid move

56. Detroit Pistons – SG B.J. Young: High value here, Young’s ability to get to the rim gives him a potential long career

57. Phoenix Suns – PG/SG: Nemanja Nedovic: A probably Euro stash, like Young, Nedovic’s athleticism gives him some potential in the NBA

58. San Antonio Spurs – PG Matthew Dellavedova: Dellavedova’s feel and skill fits the Spurs. Expect them to stash him in Europe for years first.

59. Minnesota Timberwolves – PF Richard Howell: Howell gives the Timberwolves from big man depth

60. Memphis Grizzlies –  PF Arsalan Kazemi: How about another advanced statistics favorite for the Grizzlies.

Written by jr.

June 26, 2013 at 10:07 am

Posted in Basketball

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2013 NBA Mock Draft (April)

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With the college season over, here is my current mock draft of the 1st round. To get the order for the top 3, I played the ESPN lotto machine:

 
1. Phoenix Suns – PF Nerlens Noel: Reportedly the clear favorite to go 1st. A creative team may look elsewhere, but Phoenix feels like by the book management. Noel immediately becomes the most exciting player and face of the team.

2. Orlando Magic – PG Trey Burke: As I wrote last week, I suspect Rob Hennigan is targeting feel for the game first players which is Burke’s defining trait while filling their need at PG.

3. Charlotte Bobcats – SG Ben McLemore: The Bobcats need offense, Ben provides that at SG and his spacing fits perfectly between Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s penetration game, especially complimenting the latter’s total lack of range.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers – SF Otto Porter: The Cavs’ draft picks scream advanced metrics, for the stat community Porter is a favorite for his rebounding, assists, blocks and steals for a wing. Small forward is also the Cavaliers position of need.

5. Detroit Pistons – SG/SF Victor Oladipo: The Pistons have needed a blue chip SG or SF for years. Oladipo gives them a high potential slasher and defender, both of which they need. The Pistons history is steeped with elite defensive teams, pairing Oladipo and Drummond would likely mean another is coming.

6. New Orleans Hornets – PG Marcus Smart: Greivis Vazquez is a fine point guard, not enough to draft around. Marcus Smart gives the Hornets a high upside, blue chip point guard to be Anthony Davis’ left hook.

7. Sacramento Kings – PF Anthony Bennett: Bennett is a talented power forward, who can stretch the floor beside Demarcus Cousins. The Kings may also make the ill fated decision of trying Bennett at the SF for a few years.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto) – C Alex Len: The fit for the Thunder is getting a long term center to replace Kendrick Perkins. Len gives them offensive and shotblocking upside. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Thunder took an international player like Adetukunbo here strictly to stash them for financial reasons, with a scary luxury tax situation next year.

9. Washington Wizards – SF Shabazz Muhammad: With a backcourt and frontcourt playing well with a healthy John Wall, the Wizards try to fill the 3 spot and upgrade their scoring and spacing with Shabazz.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves – SG Archie Goodwin: Goodwin should gain buzz through the workouts and combine for his amazing athletic tools. He fills a Wolves need for a blue chip SG, although his lack of shooting is a poor fit David Kahn has usually taken “best player available”.

11. Philadelphia 76ers – C Steven Adams: In the wake of the Andrew Bynum shipwreck, Philadelphia grabs a center with high shotblocking and rebounding potential with his amazing physical talents.

12. Portland Trailblazers – PF/C Gorgui Dieng: Portland needs interior defense, with Dieng gives them with his length and intelligence.

13. Dallas Mavericks – PF/C Cody Zeller: The buzz for Cody is fading fast, leaving Dallas to swoop in getting a high end PF/C who can both help Dirk next year, then replace him in the future.

14. Phoenix Suns (from LA Lakers): PF/C Mitch McGary: McGary gives Phoenix a bulkier frontcourt partner beside Noel, who’ll also produce while Noel recovers from his ACL.

15. Milwaukee Bucks – SF Giannis Adetekunbo – Giannis is a high upside small forward, likely the position the Bucks are looking to fill with this spot.

16. Boston Celtics – PF/C Kelly Olynyk: With the Kevin Garnett era winding down, Olynyk gives them upside and spacing at the PF spot.

17. Utah Jazz – PG Michael Carter-Williams: Utah almost has to take a point guard with one of their 2 picks. With Burke rising up the boards, MCW seems an obvious fit.

18. Atlanta Hawks – C Rudy Gobert: The Hawks have been looking for a C to move Al Horford to PF with for years. Gobert is likely to be picked above Withey due to athleticism and length getting favored in the draft.

19. Chicago Bulls – C Jeff Withey: With Joakim Noah’s durability issues and the value Omer Asik had to the Bulls as his backup, Withey steps into the Asik defensive backup role.

20. Atlanta Hawks (from Houston): PF James Michael McAdoo: McAdoo is a high upside PF who fills a need if Josh Smith is on his way out of Atlanta.

21. Utah Jazz (from Golden State): SF Sergey Karasev: Karasev’s high IQ and 3 point shooting ability fits the Jazz, both their team needs and culture.

22. Brooklyn Nets – SG/SF Jamaal Franklin: Brooklyn can use defense and don’t appear to be fans of Marshon Brooks, Franklin can be a useful rotation player.

23. Indiana Pacers – PG/SG CJ McCollum: While George Hill is the starting PG of the future, McCollum fits in nicely in Indiana in a 6th man shooter and scorer, if not starting SG.

24. New York Knicks – PF Mason Plumlee: Mason gives New York some presence inside on the glass, a nice backup for Melo’s stretch game at the 4.

25. Los Angeles Clippers – SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Caldwell-Pope looks like a solid rotation 2 guard with shooting and defensive potential, who can take some of Willie Green and Chauncey Billups’ minutes next year.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis) – SG/SF Reggie Bullock: If they took Goodwin, the Timberwolves would need to fill their need for shooting here. Getting 3pt shooting from the SF would help the Wolves a lot.

27. Denver Nuggets – PF CJ Leslie: Leslie is this year’s Perry Jones III, a super talented PF who’s considered an enigma. His athleticism and feel will be scooped up by someone who plans on sending him to the D League next year.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder – PF/C Isaiah Austin: Another lottery talent falls to the Thunder. Austin’s skill for a 7 footer could pay dividends down the road.

29. San Antonio Spurs – SF/PF Doug McDermott: McDermott is born to be a Spur steal with his IQ and shooting ability.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Miami) – SF Kyle Anderson: Anderson is another favorite of advanced metrics team, as a high upside stat stuffer. Although Porter is the SF of the future, Anderson gives the Cavs depth.

Written by jr.

April 9, 2013 at 12:58 pm

Posted in Basketball, NBA Draft

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2013 NBA lottery mock (02/28/13)

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Here’s my best guess at how the draft shakes out by June. That includes guessing who picks in the top 3

1. Orlando Magic – PG Marcus Smart

Rob Hennigan has been stockpiling feel for the game heavy players. Is he hunting market inefficiency wabbits? Smart fits that profile and they need a franchise PG. As crazy as it seems, Otto Porter is a dark horse here as his feel is as impressive as anyone’s.

2. Phoenix Suns – SG Ben McLemore

The Suns are desperate for a blue chip SG or SF. McLemore can be a franchise scorer and Goran Dragic’s drive and kick game compliments him.

3. Charlotte Bobcats – PF Nerlens Noel

The Bobcats are far enough away to wait for Noel’s recovery and development. The Rich Cho picks Kemba Walker, Bismack Biyombo and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist favor athleticism and defense, which Noel and Victor Oladipo fit the most.

4. Washington Wizards – SF Otto Porter

Unlikely to draft a guard with John Wall and Bradley Beal holding those spots, Porter fits at SF and matches their new professionalism focus.

5. Sacramento Kings – SG Victor Oladipo

The Kings need a team leader to turn around their team culturally. Oladipo gives them a blue chip SG and likely signals the end of Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton at the 2.

6. New Orleans Pelicans – C Cody Zeller

The Hornets could use a big with more upside than Robin Lopez to pair with Anthony Davis. Cody’s post skill and IQ creates an impressive combination.

7. Cleveland Cavaliers – C Willie Cauley-Stein

The Cavs use advanced metrics to draft which favors players with reb, blk, stl, ast, efficiency. Noel, Oladipo, Porter fits that model the most, but Cauley-Stein also rates well and fills a need for a long term C and badly needed size.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves – SG CJ McCollum

The Timberwolves had horrid shooting this year and are desperate to make the playoffs next year. CJ is a great fit shooting beside Rubio and is an immediate contributor.

9. Detroit Pistons – SG Archie Goodwin

The Pistons will almost surely draft a wing. Goodwin’s amazing physical tools should gain him fans as a high upside player.

10. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Toronto) – C Alex Len

The Thunder’s need is a blue chip center. Len falling this far is a perfect fit, giving them offense and shotblocking in the future from the position.

11. Philadelphia 76ers – PF Anthony Bennett

Another surprising fall, the 76ers go best player available hoping to get a star PF in Bennett beside Jrue.

12. Dallas Mavericks – C Steven Adams

The Mavericks seem like they’re thinking long term and for the post Dirk era. Adams has amazing physical tools for a C, if raw.

13. Charlotte Bobcats (via Portland) – SG Allen Crabbe

After grabbing defense with Noel, the Cats grab some shooting and offense at SG beside MKG and Walker.

14. Phoenix Suns – SF Shabazz Muhammad

The Suns are likely happy for a big name SF to fall this far, completing their wings upgrade.

Written by jr.

February 28, 2013 at 9:32 pm

Posted in Basketball, NBA Draft

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