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Posts Tagged ‘Nene

Stats Tuesday: Should “replacement efficiency” be used instead of league average efficiency, in NBA comparisons?

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Derrick Rose at a promotional appearance.

The value of Derrick Rose’s efficiency in his MVP season is questioned by the advanced stats community (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

A hot topic among basketball nerds is what to do with players who shoot either a league average efficiency or a below average one. Our instincts tell us a player who shoots an average shooting efficiency when he has teammates who’s efficiency is well above average, is a problem. Because it indicates the player could be passing the ball more to these more efficient players, thus raising his team’s efficiency. It indicates that if the team’s efficiency is above league average, that the credit for this should be relegated to the players taking above average shots in efficiency, not the one taking a ton of possession at an average efficiency that doesn’t move the meter.

To use an example, in the last non-lockout year (2010-2011) league average True Shooting Percentage/TS% (incorporating 3s and FTs, essentially creating a points per shot metric) was .542. The MVP, Derrick Rose, had a TS% of .550. Kobe Bryant’s score was .548, Carmelo Anthony’s .557. They are considered superstar scorers in this season because of their volume points per game. But using a strict model of comparing volume and efficiency can create some shocking results. Take the two examples of Tyson Chandler and Nene, both not known for scoring talent, but among the league leaders in efficiency in 2010-2011. Chandler takes 7.26 shots a game in the regular season on the Mavericks (using the calculation FGA + 0.44*FTA) at .697 TS%. Multiplying Chandler’s volume of shots (7.26) times league average efficiency for points per shot (.542 TS%) adds up to 3.94 points. At Chandler’s real efficiency (.697) he scores 5.06 points, for a margin of approximately +1.12 points from average. Nene likewise has 11.1 shots at .657 TS%, using the same calculation as with Chandler he ends up adding +1.27 points compared to what his shots taken at average efficiency would create. However look at what happens when the same calculation is done with Rose, Melo and Bryant. Rose, taking 22.74 shots would create 12.3 points if had shot at league average efficiency, while at his real efficiency of .55, creates 12.5 points, a whopping difference of +0.2 in the points column. Carmelo, using 22.98 shots a game at .557 TS%, using the same calculation ends up adding about +0.35 pts compared to if those shots had been taken at an league average level, while Bryant at 23.1 shots converted at .548 TS%, ends up adding a measly +.14 points compared to the average conversion of those shots. All 3 of Rose, Melo and Bryant’s scores not only trail Chandler and Nene’s numbers, but they’re not even in the same ballpark.

This is why statistical attempts to quantify scoring have met such difficulty. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

October 9, 2012 at 10:32 am

NBA Fan Q&A: Indiana Pacers

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With their ranking of #21 on the NBA Franchise Power Rankings, I asked Indiana Pacers fans on RealGM how they felt about their team:

Q: Are you satisfied with the direction of the team? A lot of people criticize the Pacers for having a ceiling as 1st or 2nd round knockout, without a true superstar to help them contend. Would you trade Danny Granger for a top 5 draft pick next season if you could?

Miller4Ever: The way we are headed is positive. Our young talent crop is promising with the rare true center Roy Hibbert, the guard tandem of Darren Collison and the newly acquired George Hill, energy man Tyler Hansbrough, and the unlimited ceiling of Paul George. The Pacers as they are now won’t make noise in the playoffs for at least another year, and Granger is not getting younger. The team doesn’t have a scorer of Granger’s caliber currently, but there is a great balance of skills from everyone else. If he were to be traded (a top 5 pick is great value for him) somebody would be able to step up.

pacers33granger: A: It’s hard not to be at least satisfied with the direction of the team. Bird and Morway did all they could really with what they had post-brawl. The team has interesting talent at nearly every position and I think pretty much any Pacer fan is intrigued by how Frank Vogel was able to run the team after his mid-season promotion. The team lacks any true star power, but it has the makings of the 90s Pacers teams who may have won a title had they not played during the Jordan era. I think next season would really depend on if I’d be for a Granger move. If we didn’t fill our PF need this year through free agency or a trade and made little progress I’d definitely think about it with the talent in next years draft.

jowglenn: Absolutely. Given where we were a few years ago (dunleavy, murphy, o’neal, granger, no other youth of any note) to where we are now, I’m thrilled. We now have youth, no bad contracts, cap space. Would I trade Granger? Maybe. Depends who it is available in the draft and how we think they will be in the NBA. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

October 28, 2011 at 10:51 am

Everyone needs to pay attention to the Nuggets right now

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Nene Hilario

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

As an analyst, I love it when players change teams. I know, it goes against the very core of what fans do, and I feel that typical pull as well, but when a player changes teams we get to see what he really meant to his old team, as well as what he can do in a new situation. This is why I’ve been looking forward to Carmelo Anthony being traded ever since the rumors of his discontent surface. He in particular has always had a reputation among the general populace as a superstar that there was never any statistical basis for.

He is a very skilled scorer, but has never utilized it do produce great efficiency. The rest of his game has never had the breadth of impact the top tier of stars have. And then this season, a weird conversation began happening based around the idea that he makes his teammates shooting skyrocket. I commented on this and on him generally in my Carmelo Conundrum piece. The most amazing fact was that if you actually looked at his effect on teammates shooting efficiency, it was negative. While true superstars tend to indeed help their teammates get easier looks, Melo didn’t.

So now, Anthony is traded to New York, and we’ve seen the new look Denver Nuggets for 10 games. You probably already know that the Nuggets are doing well and find it interesting even before you get to the entertainment aspect of things (Denver just plays some pretty, pretty ball now), but I don’t think it’s obvious to people how glaring the success has been.

Read the rest of this entry »

7 Thoughts on the Melo Maneuver

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Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets

Image via Wikipedia

Thank God, it *finally* happened. I say that both with the emotional inflection you think I’m using, and whatever the opposite is. Any big trade brings with it some fantastic new information to analyze which I love. At the same time Carmelo Anthony being traded means I don’t have to hear any more about the rumors and drama in Denver. Good times ahead. My initial thoughts on the trade:

1. Never been a huge Melo fan (as was clear in my Carmelo Conundrum piece). I remain steadfast in my opinion that however many tools are in his arsenal, he never came close to a consistent run at superstar levels. Now possibly that’s George Karl‘s fault. I doubt it, but I never say never. We’ll learn a lot more in the near future.

2. My thought for the Knicks about whether acquiring Melo was a good idea was always a mild yes, depending on the specific terms. I am however more positive about it with inclusion of Chauncey Billups. Seems to me what Mike D’Antoni really needs to make his scheme pop is a great point guard, and despite the fact that we keep seeing hype indicating that’s he’s turned another scrub point guard into a star, he’s actually been discarding point guards left and right in New York. Stephon Marbury, Nate Robinson, Chris Duhon, and now Ray Felton, all gone. Clearly they didn’t have everything he wanted. Now we get to see how Billups does. This will be the closest thing D’Antoni’s had to Nash, so we’ll have to see if that finally does the trick. Read the rest of this entry »