A Substitute for War

Basketball philosophy

Posts Tagged ‘Tyson Chandler

On why the Knicks should trade Carmelo Anthony & the Derrick Williams pick

leave a comment »

On http://www.morningpickup.com I wrote a few articles

The case for trading Carmelo Anthony


Can Derrick Williams find his niche in Sacramento?


Decline watch: Tony Parker and Tyson Chandler are hearing footsteps

with 2 comments

עברית: טוני פארקר, שזכה בפרס בשנת 2007. Hrvats...

 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Tyson Chandler and Tony Parker both had incredible seasons last year. Chandler helped lead an elite Knicks offense by setting the all time individual ORTG mark with 133 and anchoring the team’s defense and rebounding. Tony Parker was the Spurs clear-cut star for the 2nd straight season, leading the team in scoring, assists per game and having his most efficient season. They were two of the league’s true stars.

They’re also 1 and 2 on my “decline watch” list for this season. Why? Consider that they’re from the 2001 draft, thus are entering their 13th season in the league. A 13th season is late as it gets for an NBA player’s primes – only rare cases like 1998 Karl Malone, 2011 Dirk Nowitzki, 2009 Kobe Bryant have neared statistical peak that late. For players who are less than MVP talents, it’s even more rare.

Furthermore, let’s look at other players from the 2001 draft. Here are the top 10 players in career WS from the draft, who aren’t Parker or Chandler: Pau Gasol, Shane Battier, Richard Jefferson, Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Mehmet Okur, Gilbert Arenas, Troy Murphy. The group varies from recently past their prime, to totally washed up, but none were in their prime like Chandler and Parker. Even more jarring, here’s the top 10 in career WS from the 2002 draft: Amar’e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Yao Ming, Tayshaun Prince, Nene, Caron Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Jr., Drew Gooden, Luis Scola, John Salmons. Not only were 2012-2013 Parker and Chandler big enough exceptions to outlast their own draft class, but nobody’s in their prime in the next draft class either, despite a year less of experience.

In Chandler’s case, averaging 28.5 minutes per game and missing the equivalent of multiple seasons to injury, helps explain his longevity. Parker’s is incredibly impressive considering he’s played 173 playoff games in addition to his regular season miles. For both it’s a testament to their basketball IQ and work ethic they maintain this effective. But it’s more likely that their time will finally come this year, rather than be an exception one more year compared to their peers.

And of course the impact of this would be significant for the league. Parker led the team that came within a shot or rebound of the title this year, if a step less effective, they’d need a huge leap forward by Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tiago Splitter to make up for it. The Knicks are unlikely to complete with the Heat, Nets, Pacers and Bulls is Chandler isn’t at his best. The franchise is simply in a dangerous position. Their 2 stars Carmelo Anthony and Chandler are headed into their 11th and 13th seasons, making both threats to pass their prime at any moment. Anthony is a free agent after this offseason. Whether it’s even a good idea to pay him a huge contract after playing 11 seasons is as big a question, as whether he’ll want to stay if he sees Chandler’s time as a star is limited. They owe multiple future 1sts and have little young infrastructure other than Iman Shumpert. Sorry Spike and Woody, but things aren’t looking good.


Written by jr.

October 5, 2013 at 12:35 pm

33pt breakdown: Is Tyson Chandler a star talent?

leave a comment »

Wizards v/s Mavericks 02/26/11

Wizards v/s Mavericks 02/26/11 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Tyson Chandler’s career path has been interesting. After getting picked 2nd overall in the 2001 his first 9 years in the league were that of a respectable starting center but a disappointment, playing on 3 teams by the time he was 27. His season in Charlotte was his nadir, losing minutes in the rotation to Nazr Muhammad and Theo Ratliff (!!!) which along with injury concerns, made him seem like a total afterthought as a player.

Then Chandler goes to Dallas and everything changes. He helps the Mavericks win the title with a mix of defending, rebounding and all-time great shooting efficiency, gets a max contract, then wins defensive player the next year on the Knicks. This year he’s been key to a 14-4 start. Chandler the last 3 seasons has quietly been an advanced stats star, putting up top 10 in Wins Shares/48 minutes marks (5th in 2010-2011 in Dallas, 8th in 2011-2012, 2nd in 2012-2013). But the reputation of a star still somewhat alludes him, normally because players without great scoring statistics are the ones who are most often called stars. Many would likely still call Dallas’ 2011 title as a “1 star” team, complimenting Dirk for winning the title without a star 2nd banana like most title teams have.

Here is my 33pt talent grading system’s evaluation of Tyson Chandler:

Chandler’s top strength is his feel for the game. He is an extremely intelligent help defender and pick and roll defender, likewise he has become a devastating pick and roll offensive player due to his ability to find the angles and spacing rolling to the rim. Chandler’s understanding of the game and space is great. This has always been true of Chandler even in the first 9 years of his career – he has been responsible positionally at both ends.

Next, Chandler is an impressive physical talent. While never the bulkiest center in the league, he can explode to the rim hard and has great length for a center. He is not a truly dominant shotblocker (averaging 1.7 blocks per 36 minutes for his career) but can protect the rim. His rebounding numbers per minute has always been excellent. For a center he has high end physical talent.

Chandler’s skill game is where he’s made his biggest leaps. Once a player relegated to clean up baskets, he’s become a more skilled finisher, which is how he’s putting up those .70 TS% type efficiencies the last few years. This skill improvement has also correlated with an increase in FT shooting, averaging over 70% the last 4 seasons from the line. Chandler is obviously not the most skilled center in the league in regards to creating his own shot, but at the center position I believe having elite hands and finishing around the rim ranks well, with many players at the position having very little offense. Chandler is somewhere between average and decent in skill talent.

Adding it up: Chandler has elite feel for the game talent and physical talent for a center. A fair grade for Tyson in those grades would be 9 in both. Thus giving Chandler a conservative score of 5 in skill level for a center would make his total score 23. With 20 being my rough bench-mark for all-star and 24-25 being where a player crosses into superstar territory, Chandler’s score is fabulous and indicative that indeed, he is a star talent. The Dallas Mavericks had a “2nd star” on the 2011 team beside Dirk Nowitzki and the New York Knicks have a 2nd star to play with Carmelo Anthony – His name is Tyson Chandler.

Written by jr.

December 7, 2012 at 2:14 pm

Stats Tuesday: Should “replacement efficiency” be used instead of league average efficiency, in NBA comparisons?

leave a comment »

Derrick Rose at a promotional appearance.

The value of Derrick Rose’s efficiency in his MVP season is questioned by the advanced stats community (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

A hot topic among basketball nerds is what to do with players who shoot either a league average efficiency or a below average one. Our instincts tell us a player who shoots an average shooting efficiency when he has teammates who’s efficiency is well above average, is a problem. Because it indicates the player could be passing the ball more to these more efficient players, thus raising his team’s efficiency. It indicates that if the team’s efficiency is above league average, that the credit for this should be relegated to the players taking above average shots in efficiency, not the one taking a ton of possession at an average efficiency that doesn’t move the meter.

To use an example, in the last non-lockout year (2010-2011) league average True Shooting Percentage/TS% (incorporating 3s and FTs, essentially creating a points per shot metric) was .542. The MVP, Derrick Rose, had a TS% of .550. Kobe Bryant’s score was .548, Carmelo Anthony’s .557. They are considered superstar scorers in this season because of their volume points per game. But using a strict model of comparing volume and efficiency can create some shocking results. Take the two examples of Tyson Chandler and Nene, both not known for scoring talent, but among the league leaders in efficiency in 2010-2011. Chandler takes 7.26 shots a game in the regular season on the Mavericks (using the calculation FGA + 0.44*FTA) at .697 TS%. Multiplying Chandler’s volume of shots (7.26) times league average efficiency for points per shot (.542 TS%) adds up to 3.94 points. At Chandler’s real efficiency (.697) he scores 5.06 points, for a margin of approximately +1.12 points from average. Nene likewise has 11.1 shots at .657 TS%, using the same calculation as with Chandler he ends up adding +1.27 points compared to what his shots taken at average efficiency would create. However look at what happens when the same calculation is done with Rose, Melo and Bryant. Rose, taking 22.74 shots would create 12.3 points if had shot at league average efficiency, while at his real efficiency of .55, creates 12.5 points, a whopping difference of +0.2 in the points column. Carmelo, using 22.98 shots a game at .557 TS%, using the same calculation ends up adding about +0.35 pts compared to if those shots had been taken at an league average level, while Bryant at 23.1 shots converted at .548 TS%, ends up adding a measly +.14 points compared to the average conversion of those shots. All 3 of Rose, Melo and Bryant’s scores not only trail Chandler and Nene’s numbers, but they’re not even in the same ballpark.

This is why statistical attempts to quantify scoring have met such difficulty. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

October 9, 2012 at 10:32 am

The NBA’s 50 Most Interesting People of ’10-11 (Part I)

leave a comment »

A countdown of the 50 most interesting people in the NBA this year based on what they have and have not

Image via nba.com

done. This post will count down from 50 to 31.

50. Joel Anthony

Who’d have thunk that the 4th most important player after Miami’s Big 3 would be an undrafted guy who spent more time on the bench than on the floor in college? Dude’s become a living symbol of team balance. The Heat have so much focus on scoring with their 3 stars that not only can they afford to have a 2 PPG guy as stater – they STILL are putting too much emphasis on scorers even with a guy like Anthony.

49. LaMarcus Aldridge

With Roy falling on hard time, Aldridge has emerged as the Blazers’ star, as they continue to both disappoint and overachieve. Aldridge has yet to really capture our attention with star-like intrigue, but his new prominence is noteworthy.

Read the rest of this entry »

Aftermath of a Miami-Dallas Game 3 classic: When a 1st quarter matters more than a 4th

with one comment

Dwyane Wade playing with the Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade has been the true King in these FInals (Image via Wikipedia)

I loved Game 3 of the Dallas vs Miami NBA Finals. It’s an ESPN classic game in my books. In fact I’m going to be really hyperbolic and call that one of my favorite NBA games of all time. I’ve never had more to say about a game at the least.

So where did Miami trump Dallas in this game? True, they were a little better in the last few minutes and won by a basket. But that’s not really where Miami won and Dallas lost this game. That came in in the 1st quarter.

Dallas started Game 3 playing unbelievably bad defense. It’s one thing for a good offense to find open shots, it’s another for Dwyane Wade and LeBron James (more on them later) to get wide open, uncontested scores/dunks in the paint. My hunch says it all came down to Brendan Haywood’s injury leaving Tyson Chandler worried about fouling early. With intensity and strong close-outs inside the Mavericks title caliber defense momentarily collapsed.

Read the rest of this entry »

Flop and Punishment; Adapt or Suffer

with 14 comments

Image by baldeaglebluff via Flickr

During the game Saturday night, James Harden executed a flop to perfection against Tyson Chandler. He bumped into Chandler, and then when Chandler reacted by putting his arms up, Harden flopped at a point where Chandler’s elbows protruded maximally. Worked like a charm, Chandler got whistled for a technical.

Among the television announcers, Jeff Van Gundy talked about how they need to fine players for such flops, while Mark Jackson said you can’t fine a guy for trying to help his team.

I can’t think of a finer scenario for a meditation on flopping and rule making.

Read the rest of this entry »

The value of “Tyson Chandler buckets” – Low volume, high efficiency scoring

with 2 comments

Tyson ChandlerOne of the advancements of basketball statisicians is a movement towards better wars of measuring scoring efficiency. The most popular is True Shooting % (TS%), which is more accurate of points per shot than FG% because it accounts for 3pt line and FT line scoring. The average TS% for teams in the league is .54. Thus player efficiency is measured by scoring above and below this line. Usually, we value players who score 20 points a game at .60 TS%. Kevin Love, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer are examples of players capable of this. But what about the players who score at an even higher efficiency, but at a low volume? Examples of this include Tyson Chandler who scores 10.3 points a game at a league leading .70 TS%, Matt Bonner who scores 7.6 points a game at .669 TS%, and this year’s Shaq who scores 9.3 points a game at .655 TS%. These seasons are usually not as valued due to the lower volume. But is this accurate? Let’s do a quick calculation:

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by jr.

March 15, 2011 at 12:11 am

The Case for Dirk Nowitzki

with 7 comments

Dirk Nowitzki

Image via Wikipedia

Dirk Nowitzki has been my choice for MVP for more than a month now. However, we’ve only got about a month to go in the regular season, and Dirk’s not on most people’s short list. He isn’t in the top 3 at either ESPN’s or nba.com’s Award Watches for example. The closest I’ve seen anyone argue for Dirk, was a good SB Nation article saying he deserves more attention than he’s getting, and a Mavs’ blogger saying he’s as deserving as the other candidates. Not all that bold. So I guess I’ll take the leap:

As of now, Dirk Nowitzki is the player most deserving of winning the 2010-11 NBA MVP.

Let’s start out with the basics: The Dirk Nowitzki is the clear superstar on a team with no other all-stars, and he has led the team to the 3rd best record in the league in a year where there are no serious candidates on on the top 2 teams. Right there, Dirk should be on everybody’s mind as a top candidate.

Read the rest of this entry »